6/27/2009

腐败的源流

腐败问题到底是什么造成的?现在看来,不是威权政治或者一党专政能解释得了的。认为通过民主化就能解决腐败问题是充满了乌托邦式幻想的。这不过是全球化市场资本主义借第三世界人民对政治腐败失望而制造的空中阁楼罢了。最终导致腐败的是市场资本主义本身。它把自由放任的市场强加于各个国家的时候,对文化、道德、社会规约的腐蚀和摧毁致使腐败与资本主义的扩散一起蔓延。政治民主和法律基础较强的国家,腐败阴性一些、可控一些,政治转型、司法不独立的国家腐败明显、社会动荡一些,而所谓失败国家则只能遭受以人权为借口的国际干涉,甚至国家分裂。但有一点是肯定的,这些腐败只有量的区别、没有质的不同,市场化越自由,腐败的程度就越高。最高级的腐败,是合法的腐败,光天化日、百姓拥戴的腐败。可惜,不采用具有“合法性”外衣的民主体制,是不可能获得这种正大光明的腐败的。

6/26/2009

绿色帝国主义之诞生

今天WAXMAN-MARKEY法案通过美国众议院,MICHAEL JACKSON突然死亡。
两件毫不相关的事情,却都是一个时代的标志。后者标志着80年代以来POP巨星文化的终结,其实也是里根以来美式资本主义沉沦的象征吧。而前者则是美国新当权者试图开创新的美国世纪的标志,我们暂且称之为绿色帝国主义。该法案作了一定的妥协,但还是作出了2020年,2050年两个减排温室气体的承诺,并作出了一系列相关的能源环境制度安排,主要是以碳排放交易为中心。
放开国内立法不论,这个法案的国际部分是保护主义的,事实上也是帝国主义的。它作出了大量补贴国内绿色产业,提高电子产品、建筑器材能耗标准的规定,完全可被用于非关税壁垒。其中关于向发展中国家作出技术转移的部分更是直接规定不得以丧失美国人工作和美国境内制造为前提。
最为让人费解和难以接受的是,发案第三节所谓“国际参与”竟然规定:
    The Administrator, in consultation with the Department of State and the United States Trade Representative, shall annually prepare and certify a report to the Congress regarding whether China and India have adopted greenhouse gas emissions standards at least as strict as those standards required under this Act. If the Administrator determines that China and India have not adopted greenhouse gas emissions standards at least as stringent as those set forth in this Act, the Administrator shall notify each Member of Congress of his determination, and shall release his determination to the media.
这种专门针对中国和印度的歧视做法令人发指,其中包含的霸权气息不言而喻。虽然文中没有明确规定若中、印不满足美国条件将如何,但其将报告经媒体散布的威胁用意已是不言自明了。现在,美国不仅把持了人权的道德制高点,又进一步制造了碳权这个表面上更公正无私的干涉权。如果说西方普世人权已经无视人文历史、文化差异和政治形态区别,新的普世碳权在这个法案中更是只字不提自然历史,无视经济发展差距,并直接以所谓美国迟来的“以身作则”抹杀西方主要污染责任。这种形式上的“高标准、严要求”,不就是实质上的帝国霸权吗?好了,W-M法案通过了,奥巴马年底访华也好、12月哥本哈根会议也好,中国若不屈从跟进,马上又会变成众矢之的,成了什么全球人类大屠杀的罪魁祸首。其实中国积极减排没有什么不好,但是不能让别人控制我们的减排时间表,更不能从美国人的利益出发安排我们的减排计划和方向。否则,不但减排完不成,我们产业升级、占领绿色环保产业国际市场的梦想就先胎死腹中了。

6/25/2009

重读杜重远的《明耻》《要面子不要脸》还是掷地有声

不知为何,网络时代了,要面子不要脸的人还到处流窜,甚至有了网络更加方便了他们倾吐心声。倒也方便,彻底不用脸了。可是,自己不要脸也就罢了,连中国的脸一起丢,完了还要从洋主子那里找脸撑面子。可能中国人真的是太多了,不要脸的人就算比例一般,也是总数惊人。最要命的是这些要面子不要脸的人真是大大的不要脸,以至于一个顶一万个,轻易的就被洋人们看中,变了某某金尊、某某奖金的候选人。而真正要脸的人,到头来丢了面子,仿佛很见不得人,在外面挺不起腰来了。什么时候也能看看轮子、熨斗、毛肚们搭伴上渔船去南海兜一圈,危急时刻也就见了真章儿了。

原文如下:
《明耻》

张三的狗咬了李四的猫,李四必起而问罪于张三,认为这是一件可耻的事情。甲村的刘五回骂了乙村的王六,乙村必纠合赵七孙八……来与甲村宣战,甚至杀伤几条人命,也因认为这是一件奇耻大辱的事情。可见人是有血性的动物,羞恶之心与生俱来。语曰:知耻近乎勇,耻之为用大矣哉。
  但是时代变迁,耻的观点也有不同。譬如前清时代,每人背后拖着一条无用的发辫,无论外人怎样的嘲骂,但那时若是短发光头的先生们,总觉羞答答难以见人。又如缠足风气最盛的地方,十七八岁的女郎容貌无论怎样的秀美,金莲若不小至三寸,便以为耻。听说云南的乡俗,为女择嫁时,先决条件,婿家须有三杆大烟枪。广东的阔大佬,最低的财产,必拥有半打以上的小老婆,如家里没有小老婆,就引以为耻。
  可见“耻”是在各个社会里,都同。不合理的社会以不合理为荣,合理的社会方以不合理为耻。
  某次,日人在大连开产业博览会,南满铁路公司照例要赠送中国每个大官一张头等车票,以示优遇。记者虽非大官,以实业家的资格,同在被招徕之列。有某大官,携其十五龄幼子,同车去大连。车出沈阳一站,检票员忽来检票,问某公子年龄几何,某以实对。该铁路规章年逾十四岁者,须购半票。检票员向某索票,某答曰:“这是我的少爷。”检票员用半通不通的中国话玩笑着说:“我要票不要少爷。”某大官深恐检票员不知他老人家的来历,于是由怀中掏出一张三寸多长二寸多宽的大卡片,上书“四等嘉禾章奉天实业厅长某……”递给检票员。检票员还是笑着说:“这不是票!”此时满车中外客人的视线,全注视在这一幕滑稽剧上。记者实在忍耐不住,因向某大官婉劝:“补一张半票算了吧。”某大官硬气十足,至死不肯,两方争持个不可开交。于是有一位满铁高级职员出面调停,向检票员用日语说:“这是中国大官的脾气,宁肯丢人,不肯丢钱。这张半票由我代补好了。”检票员取得某职员的证明而去。这场风波,总算完了。一张半票,其价不过八圆,但这位老官看来,坐火车买票是可耻的。而坐车揩油,丢国家体面却不算是耻。因此所谓“耻”也者,是随着各人的身分地位而各有不同的。
  常见许多名流要人,天天谈话,教训别人应知羞耻。他们以为穷人做偷儿,是可耻的,而卖国分赃却不可耻。妓女接客是可耻的,而达官贵人,暮夜夤缘,却不可耻。在马路旁高喊老爷小姐,向人求乞是可耻的,而在租界里,洋房汽车,娇妻美妾,拿老百姓汗血,任情享用,却不算耻。
  这就是因为各人身份不同,时代不同,所以以无耻为有耻,以有耻为无耻。只有大家认清楚了:出卖大众利益的,高官厚禄,以剥削民脂民膏为生的,方是人世间的奇耻大辱。靠自己的汗血,过清苦廉洁的生活的,却是世间唯一知有羞耻的人。这样时代方能有进步。知耻方可以言勇,明耻方可以教战。所以知耻明耻最要紧。

《要面子不要脸》
仿佛是南开大学校长张伯苓先生说的话:“中国人要面子不要脸”,这句话是万分真确的。
  原来面子和脸是完全不同的两件东西。中国旧戏里有一 套脸谱,这花花绿绿的脸谱就是“面子”,而真正的脸却反不能辨认清楚了。做戏子的只要上台的时候,脸谱弹得像个样子,至于真正的脸,长得好看不好看,那是不相干的。其实中国人一切都如此:只要保全面子,丢脸却全不在乎。阿Q就是一个代表。所以挨人打不要紧,但在背后却要说一句“儿子打老子”,这样虽丢了脸,面子却是有了。所以要面子不要脸是中国人一般的人生哲学。
  就整个中国社会来看,亦无不如此。在大城市里,工商业不景气,破产倒闭的事,层见迭出,但是酒馆舞场还是一 样地热闹,在乡村里,贪穷到不堪,肚子发生了问题,但婚丧的仪式,迷信的陋习,依然大事铺张,为的是不肯丢掉面子。
  学生们念书,只求得到一张文凭,却不想求一些实学。教师们习染官僚的恶习,夤缘奔走,只求以做大学教授为荣,而贻误子弟却可以不问。这都是中了要面子不要脸的毒。
  说工商界罢。年来国货两字是最时髦没有了。但是着实有许多不要脸的商人们,将大批仇货,印上国货商标,到处兜销。财是发了,面子是有了。但是做了卖国的奸商,却满不在乎!
  军人总算是中国的天之骄子了。大将军出门,八面威风,黄呢服,黑马靴,白缨帽,金丝眼镜,高车骏马,前呼后应,场面可谓十足矣。然而四省沦陷的时候,从未闻有半个将军阵亡或负伤,死掉的只不过是一群小百姓。
  谈到政治,更足痛心。从前历史上所描写的政治不良,不过是如何夤缘,如何奔走而已。今则花样百出,中西兼用。记者在东北时曾见一批政客,来自南方,携名花,扶艳女,或称为妻,或称为妹,或称为亲爱的女儿,专为结识权贵,献媚当局。昼则高尔夫,夜则狐步舞。乌烟瘴气,黑漆一团。待其鬼计既售,官运亨通,简任到手,局长实现。于是一掷千金,挥霍无度。面子大则大矣,脸不知其何有?
  还有洋场十里的高等华人们,拍惯了洋大人的马屁,把帝国主义者当作自己祖宗。说中国不亡无天理。这些人在租界里住洋房,坐汽车,“高等”则“高等”矣,但是说到脸,他们实在要向着没有面子的人力车夫们说一声惭愧。
  不必再多说了。总之,要面子不要脸这六字,包括尽了中国人的劣根性:政治的窳败,经济的破产,东北的失陷,边境的沦亡,都是由于要面子不要脸这一种人生哲学的缘故,所以要救中国必先革除这种亡国的人生哲学。
原载《新生》1934年3月17日第1卷第6期

6/24/2009

协商式社会主义的前景

资本主义和社会主义从来就不是一对简单的反义词,市场经济和民主也从来就不是和资本主义密不可分的双生子。长期以来,我们总是过分简单化这些概念以至于缩小了未来社会可能性的讨论空间。 二十世纪以来,几种相对应的社会经济制度实践实际上是美式资本主义,日德资本主义,苏式社会主义在全球范围内的竞争,显然,后两者都以失败而告终了。由此,产生出福山的历史终结论。但是,福山把美式资本主义暂时的胜利简单等同于资本主义的胜利。他又把市场经济和民主政治简单同意于资本主义,这就造成了冷战后一代人的想象力缺失,从而导致了今天的社会动荡和发展困境。在中国,很多自由派思想家也因此走进死胡同。

从今天世界发展的趋势看来,共产主义是比较遥远的梦想,但某种形式的社会主义却是可以努力实现的目标。首先是市场经济与社会主义理论的结合,中国多年的实践表明基于广泛社会政治架构上的市场经济是可行的。全球日益深刻的经济危机也指出经济的全球管制也成为紧要的任务。在这些纷繁复杂的表象背后,根本的问题是西方古典经济学中的两大预设被打破了,一是理性人假设,一是增长无极限假设。金融市场的非理性与支撑实体经济的资源有限性导致全球规模的计划性不可避免。但这种计划不是苏联式的命令计划,而是协商出来的人性计划。 美式资本主义存在的前提是日益扩张的能源供给和不受限制的碳排放。现在,这两根支柱都受到了严重威胁:石油和天然气的国有化,全球气候变化的紧迫性皆指向这种掠夺式资本主义的终点。从这个意义上说,到现在历史才终结,一个以无限理性增长为预期的高能耗政治经济的终结,美式资本主义和苏式社会主义的共同终结。

新的全球协商式社会主义是基于能量总体控制和创新市场化机制的经济体制和全球政治民主的协商机制的新设想。这个设想有一些基础设施正在铺设。一是对能源的产出控制,如欧佩克对石油输出的控制,天然气和其它燃料的也会有类似控制,钢铁也有类似的控制机制,在这里市场价格起一定作用,而社会政治因素也被考虑在内。二是对碳排放的总量控制。未来逐渐形成的全球碳排放限制与交易机制将起到对生产总量计划化的效果,但这种计划化不会造成大锅饭、养懒人式的低效率,而是成为促进产业创新和社会进步的动力。全球金融管制也是这个体制的有机组成部分,可以引导资本积累向有利于健康经济成长的道路。

现在比较难于克服的有两个。首先是如何向新马尔萨斯主义回归,承认人口净增长对人类长期发展的危害,并推动全球范围内的人口计划化。保守的宗教观念和虚伪的西方人权观阻挠了这个进程,并加剧了全球贫困化的发展。其次是如何增强发展中国家在协商中的份量,从而保证全球经济计划的公平和公正。没有政治协商的公正性,强加的全球计划化只能成为西方维护现存世界秩序,继续压迫第三世界的工具。 微观层面的市场竞争与宏观层面的能量计划化并不冲突,反而是实现可持续增长的两翼,缺一不可。而社会主义的人权与政治民主更需要在环境与经济正义的基础上建立,从而打破资本主义自启蒙运动以来对这些普世主义价值观的垄断和扭曲。协商式社会主义会在晚期资本主义的逻辑中诞生,这是当年宣布资本主义战胜一切成为万世不易的真理的人所不曾料到的。

6/20/2009

Twitter: so close to history, so far from truth

Thanks to the Iranian government policy of closing the country to all foreign media, Twitter now is the only media that transmitting information out of that country. Therefore, making it not only a source of news, but a source of power. Whether or not this new communication pattern is a real representative of the Iranian civil society is not a question for the American mainstream media, cause what they want is news or more specifically proof of evil, and non mistakenly they got what they came for.
With powerful systems like Twitter, what's happening and what's showing are only distinguished by the speed of light. Thus, history was never so close to its original meaning: a multi-perspective accumulation of the event. This raw and live history is full of glances, snatches, comments, opinions and feelings, which synchronize the hearts of the world with the happenings inside Iran. Twitter became the enhanced form of embedded journalism and erected sensors everywhere for viewers anywhere. But are we closer to the truth?
Once you jump in the network, a centerless spiderweb, you are lost in a meaningless, contextless world of sliced information flood. The closer you are to the events, the further you are from the truth. These pieces require the individual reciever to assign meanings to them. However, the lack of background kowledge diasbled the audience from fully understanding and comprehending such meaning. As a result, incomings are put into simplified categories to make basic sense, and whose categories are easily provided by mainstream media and widely circulated social discourses. The outcome is not truth, but merely a set of reinforced opinions, intensified feelings, and impuse for actions.
Taken Iran as an example, for over a week, the media is waiting for bloodshed and explosive footage from the internet. And yet, no one, perhaps exclude PBS, bothers to explain the background of these events, the reality of lives in Iran and the real dispute between the conflicting sides. In order to reach the conclusion before anything even happens, the media quickly declared a TAM (China, 1989) second regardless the vast cultural and political differences between the two events. The broad western labelling or branding of events gives little room for the nuance of understanding and exacerbates the situation by pushing international interventions.

Follow Up:
There is one similarity between the current event and many other riots around the world: inflation. Though the cause of that is not entirely clear, inflation is quite a common problem in developing countries due to their inability to balance the budgets. Petrodollar, government speding aimed at gaining popular support, central bank's capacity to reign in inflation, and global economic situation are all connected with the problem. Needless to say, both Iran's contentious foreign policy and populous domestic policy are all deeply disturbing to the urban (more liberal) Iranians. The failure in Iran to develop a viable political economy foreshadows (maybe has been proved) all resource rich authoritarian countries, such as Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Unfortunately, neither Obama nor Moussavi could change the systemic problem, but to have them is better than without them for the people of now.

For a good understanding of Iran's politics and Iran-U.S. relations see "Iran is not the problem" a documentary.

大银行才是美国资本主义的支柱

最近一期的外交杂志封面文章Why Rescue Big Banks by Roger M. Kubarych 向我们揭示了美国资本主义与大银行的深刻内在关系。先看看Kubarych总结的大银行不可或缺的理由吧:

1. Big banks finance risk-takers
2. Big banks finance deals, especially big ones
3. Big banks can trade in size in global capital markets
4. Big banks are in the derivatives business, small and medium-sized institutions are not
5. Big banks run big IT operations
The above points explain why financial institutions grew so large and why that was and remains a generally good thing for the economy as a whole.

总结起来大银行的优点就是能够让大资本进行全球大规模运作。换句话说,美国资本主义依赖经济的全球化,而全球化则依赖金融资本的规模化和流动化。注意,这里的全球化不仅仅指资本和生产的空间扩张,也指资本本身的深化即对生活各个侧面地渗透。没有大资本做血液、资本衍生品做血管,美国资本主义的肢体是伸展不开的。这就是为什么一定要救大银行。
在该文作者看来“the appropriate way to prevent such behavior is not to limit the size of financial institutions, but rather to reform their corporate governance” 也就是说,公司治理结构比大小更关键。文中提出一个技术性解决放案,设立 “a category of "professional directors" -- who are elected directly by shareholders” 并认为这种新的董事能恪尽职守,保证大银行的健康运转。如果解决办法这么简单,为什么早没有人提呢?其实,克鲁格曼对奥巴马方案的抱怨也集中在公司治理层面,他对华尔街巨头们的年薪还是耿耿于怀,念念不忘,认为新法令对此限制不足。

经济发展过程中,信贷扩张应该与劳动生产率的提高相协调,货币供给学派的根本问题就在于盲目迷信信贷扩张对经济增长的促进作用,而忽略了一切其他的因素。无论信贷系统的公司管制如何微调,没有社会政策配合协调去推动劳动生产率的提高从而提供更广阔的发展空间,信贷系统危机的爆发就是早晚的事情。公司治理不可能改变金融资本追求超额利润的基本冲动,只可能在一定时间内降低非系统性风险。可惜的是,外交杂志也好,纽约时报也罢,再聪明的专家们,一到了所谓主流媒体上都只剩下政治安全的隔靴搔痒了。

6/19/2009

Sovereignty and Accountability

Prime Minister Gordon Brown stepped up his public criticism. “We are with others, including the whole of the EU unanimously today, in condemning the use of violence, in condemning media suppression,” he told a news conference after a European Union summit in Brussels. He said it was up to Iran to show the world that the elections were fair and that “the repression and the brutality that we have seen in these last few days is not something that is going to be repeated.” (From NY Times)

What a righteous voice for GB to stand up for the people of Iran! Or at least some of them, or at least whom GB believed to have shared western values. Anyway, those on the streets of Tehran. It is so natural for the West to criticize the stupic Iranian government which quickly declared victory after the election and soon found itself in trouble. Election fraud, opposition protest, civil conflict and sporatic bloodshed, forced recount, government respond, sounds familiar? Yes, everywhere in democratic countries. But wait, why Iran is required to show the world that the elections were fair and since when did a sovereign country accountable not to its people but to the West's public opinion?

Regardless whether Iran is a democratic or free country, GB's word revealed a condescending imperialism disguised by subtle discourse of human rights and universal democratic principles. That's what I call "imperial human rights" practice. Under such a beautiful face, modern communication technologies, such as twitters, and so called NGOs were utilized to penetrate state boundaries and to undermine sovereignties. How can the West let this golden opportunity slip away? If the Iranian government loose, the "moderate" opposition will probably favor a pro-west policy; if the Iranian government recourse to coercion, the world opinion could be turn upon it and therefore a solid popular back for more sanctions; even if Ahmadinejad remain in power, he will be crippled by the fact that the country is split, which will severly limit his policy options. Meanwhile, and more importantly Khamenei will be weakened and his imagine tainted. So no matter what, making current crisis a huge event is such a win-win situation for the politically, militarily and economicly depressed British and American government that Obama can even afford to keep low-key for the moment.
Ultimately, the Iranians will sustain all the losses. At the end of the day, this unequal world system is demanding them to show courage, sacrifice, and proof of a "true democracy", while they cannot ask the same from the British or the Americans.

P.S. In order to show the technological superority, "the BBC announced that it was using two extra satellites — Nilesat and Eutelsat W2M — to broadcast its Persian-language service into Iran to restore the signal after days of jamming by Iranian authorities." What a splendid illustration of this one way broadcasting dominance! What would happen if western voters pursue elective justice out side of the legal channel? As you can imagine.

6/18/2009

Moral judgement and systemic risk

It's funny to compare the criticisms against the Chinese government corruption and the American financial crisis. The former, some say, is because of systemic failure, not moral failure. You have to change the entire system in order to eradicate corruption. Therefore, rule by virtue or moral education on the officials will not work, and even if someone is morally upright, he is doomed in the system that deeply flawed. When it comes to the American financial crisis, the argument is 180 degrees reversed. The system is OK, though it needs some patch works. It is the wall streeters that are morally corrupted and they should be responsible for what happened. President Obama's solution is filled with such moral judgement while left systemic problem out of the question.
Indeed, the new plan called for more power concentration in the hands of the Feds, which is by the way a private institution in essence. The Feds is a professional organization for sure. It's filled with Chicago/Princeton/Harvard educated economists. But as Greenspan pointed out in his interview, the Feds answers to no one in politics. Of course, it has to answer to the economic leaders, more specifically, bankers themselves. Giving Feds more power sounds like giving more supervising power to a financial guild to look after its members. True, there will be more regulations, more forms to fill, more bars to cross and one more agencies to answer, but at the end of the day, except the Wall Street gain and main street loose, what else is coming out of this government?
The corruption in China won't stop until some systemic reform is done to make those corrupted accountable, and the crisis will happen again even if all WS managers are morally clean. This whole system of educating, placing, cultivating money speculators will continue, if the opposite of actually creating and making stuff is not rewarded as much as the financial CEOs. So much for American democracy....

6/14/2009

方静事件

一个无聊的所谓名人,发了一篇茶余饭后瞎编烂造出来的所谓博文,制造出了一个轰动世界搅扰地球的新闻,这就是后现代的今天我们生活的无厘头地球。且不论这个叫阿忆的闲人有无犯法,起码他辩解了一通,号称只关心作弊问题,(轮得到他关心吗?),最无聊的是那些从别人博客中寻找新闻的记者们。更可笑的是,在没有调查取证的情况下,各种网络媒体一通乱传,混淆是非,使真相扑朔迷离,真正找不到答案了。即便今天当事人出来辟谣,说来说去,人们还是抱着宁可信其有的心态。残忍的是,有些人现在把谣言当事实,把“事实”当娱乐,把自己的无聊享受建筑在无辜者的痛苦之上而不自觉。现在的中国学界、艺术界、媒体就是被这样一群道德低下,寡廉鲜耻的人把持着,四处散发出脑死亡的腐臭,招徕成群的无所事事的苍蝇附和,直让人觉得恶心和悲哀。对死人不依不饶、对活人造谣生事,搞不清楚为何鲁迅先生痛批过的劣根性,如何又在这些人身上复活了过来。绿坝之类东西,没事儿的我看也就免了,偏要装在这些人脑子里用用,不妨什么淫秽网站、反动宣传,专防他们自己脑子里的偷鸡摸狗、男盗女娼。

6/13/2009

Iran, Korea and the future of a chaotic world

The Iranian election this year perhaps was destined to be a source of domestic conflict. Apparently Ahamednejad wasn't ready to give up power and his opponents were determined to get rid of him and his hardline policies. There's now way we can find out the truth for now, but if Ahamednejad succeeds in keeping his power, Obama's smart-power foreign policy will face a big blow next to the North Korea one. The failure to deter NK from acquiring nuclear weaponry has led to rising tensions in the region, and now NK is said to further weaponize its plutonium if UN applies tighter sanction. Iran and NK's defiance will multiply the difficulties faced by the U.S. in dealing with two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Inside America, issues of abortion, race and same-sex are also truning up the heat, giving Obama's administration more to swallow at the same time, which further deteriorate the capacity of America to provide security insurance for the world.
Meanwhile, the EU, Russia and China are all too reluctant to take responsibility for any. Therefore in the short to medium run, the world is likely to run into a chaotic situation, exacerbated by the deepening of information technologies. In general, the world economy seems to be slowly recovering. However, as this blog has pointed out, the weakening of the hegemonic power, the unwillingness of the secondary power to participate, and the proliferation of modern science and tech are eroding the basis of the liberal global system. Potentially, these geopolitical situations could derail the road to recovery and stir up more conflicts around the world.
The future conflict will not be a WWIII, rather it will be a host of local low tensity conflicts between or among peripheral nations or groups due to the relaxation of regulatory powers.

6/11/2009

外交关系授权法 H.R.2410

外交关系授权法,由众议院外交事务委员会主席伯曼(Rep. Howard Berman)提出,授权对2010以及2011年的一些外交事务支出做出拨款。法案授权美国总统把卫星与相关零件从美国武器出口管制的项目中免除,不过,直接或者间接有助于中国发展太空项目的卫星并不在免除的范围之内。法案也设立基金会鼓励美国学生到中国等国家留学。

该法授权在美国驻北京大使馆内设立负责西藏事务的部门,并主张推动非政府组织干涉西藏事务,还要求寻求在拉萨设立领事馆的可能。
    United State Assistance- The President shall provide grants to nongovernmental organizations to support sustainable economic development, cultural and historical preservation, health care, education, and environmental sustainability projects for Tibetan communities in the Tibet Autonomous Region and in other Tibetan communities in China
    The Secretary of State is authorized to establish a Tibet Section within the United States Embassy in Beijing, People's Republic of China, for the purposes of following political, economic, and social developments inside Tibet, including Tibetan areas of Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu, and Yunnan provinces, until such time as a United States consulate in Tibet is established. Such Tibet Section shall have the primary responsibility for reporting on human rights issues in Tibet and shall work in close cooperation with the Office of the Special Coordinator for Tibetan Issues. The chief of such Tibet Section should be of senior rank.

众议院院会在10号晚些时候还通过跟外交关系授权法案相关的修正案,其中一项由国会美中工作组共同主席拉森众议员Rep Larsen, Rick [WA-2] 与科克众议员共同提出。修正案表示,美国在全球推动解决气候变化问题的时候,必须保护有关清洁能源科技的知识产权。(原文如下)
    H.AMDT.187 to H.R.2410 An amendment numbered 7 printed in part C of House Report 111-143 to provide that the policy of the United States, with respect to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, shall be to prevent any weakening of, and ensure robust compliance with and enforcement of, existing international legal requirements for the protection of intellectual property rights, related to energy or environmental technologies.
由此可见,一方面美国在金融危机中暂时寻求中国的协作与帮助,另一方面求变本加厉继续干涉和煽动西藏问题扩大化。一方面,想要与中国合作推动气候变化谈判和全球温室气体减排,另一方面却有把持相关科学技术和知识产权,生怕发展中国家从中获益。这样的两面嘴脸毫无信义可言,又如何能取信于中国,推进中美关系的发展呢?可以预见,一旦美国经济政治军事形势好转,反华势力必将卷土重来,现在的这些立法就是在制造障碍,埋下伏笔,侵蚀合作和信任的基础,为将来留余地。

6/10/2009

三百勇士与八百勇士

不满意以南京大屠杀来表现中国的抗战历史,也不满意“我的团长我的团”,我找了一下,台湾拍过一部“四行仓库”,挺好。里面的歌里唱得好,“宁战死,不退让”,这个比较符合当时的历史状态,也应该是我们回顾那段历史的基调。
淞沪会战中的四行仓库一战,是整个抗日战争光辉的起点,是挫败日本军国主义侵略计划,鼓励中国抗战的旗帜。虽然平型关一战伏击成功,歼敌逾千,但相比起来,四行的惨烈与悲壮,对整个中国抗战的历史而言更具代表性。
古代斯巴达300勇士守温泉关,最近好莱坞的片子看起来还是很有霸气。那种不屈的精神,拒绝当奴隶的勇气,面对死亡的从容,藐视敌人的豪气,是一个民族最应当具备的性格。守四行的八百勇士(实有400多人,大多数是新兵)的壮举毫不亚于这三百勇士。从孤军奋战,到困守孤营而不降,直至被俘而不屈,最终回到抗战队伍,故事之曲折跌宕,军人的慷慨赴死精神,令人感佩。
谢晋元团才是抗战中真正的英雄团,四行仓库之战才是中国军人和中国人民在民族危亡时刻不屈不挠的象征。
正是由于淞沪会战,特别是四行仓库之战对日本侵略者的重大打击,才导致其占领南京之后兽性大发,采取大规模屠杀以摧垮中国抗战意志的办法。从这个意义上说,日本人在南京的罪行,恰恰是中国人不畏强权,反抗暴政的结果,而不是放弃抵抗、任人屠杀的结果。
所以最好不要再追着斯皮尔伯格的道儿,一味满足外国人的好奇心和怜悯心了。

TFP and Krugman Bias

When financial crisis hit Asia in 1997, the wise Krugman quickly pointed out that there's a fundamental problem in the Asian economy and he used the Total Factor Productivity as a theoretical concept to explain the phenomenon. The lack of innovation in the Asian economies, argued Krugman, ultimately contributed to the collapse of monetary system throughout the region. Though others rush to criticize the so called crony capitalism and the whole pattern of political economy in Asia, I always thought that Krugman's argument was the most fitful one.
Now it's the American turn to suffer the financial meltdown, but so far, the prophet Krugman hasn't even mention the word TFP. For liberal economists, the idea that American market economy is not at the center of technological innovation and productivity growth is unthinkable and even blasphemous. The bias agaisnt Asian development is obvious now. Particularly when Krugman traveled to China and told the Chinese that their way of polluting the world is unsustainable at best. When it comes to the TFP, Krugman never wants to confess that two factors slip his mind: the scientific and technological innovation in the developing world is far more effective than he thought; if not, that's because the developed world always monopoliz the knowledge in order to prevent competition from outside the club. So stop empty talking Prof. Krugman. If you really want to save the world, try to pursuade big companies to transfer more energy saving techs to the developing world first!