The Iranian election this year perhaps was destined to be a source of domestic conflict. Apparently Ahamednejad wasn't ready to give up power and his opponents were determined to get rid of him and his hardline policies. There's now way we can find out the truth for now, but if Ahamednejad succeeds in keeping his power, Obama's smart-power foreign policy will face a big blow next to the North Korea one. The failure to deter NK from acquiring nuclear weaponry has led to rising tensions in the region, and now NK is said to further weaponize its plutonium if UN applies tighter sanction. Iran and NK's defiance will multiply the difficulties faced by the U.S. in dealing with two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Inside America, issues of abortion, race and same-sex are also truning up the heat, giving Obama's administration more to swallow at the same time, which further deteriorate the capacity of America to provide security insurance for the world.
Meanwhile, the EU, Russia and China are all too reluctant to take responsibility for any. Therefore in the short to medium run, the world is likely to run into a chaotic situation, exacerbated by the deepening of information technologies. In general, the world economy seems to be slowly recovering. However, as this blog has pointed out, the weakening of the hegemonic power, the unwillingness of the secondary power to participate, and the proliferation of modern science and tech are eroding the basis of the liberal global system. Potentially, these geopolitical situations could derail the road to recovery and stir up more conflicts around the world.
The future conflict will not be a WWIII, rather it will be a host of local low tensity conflicts between or among peripheral nations or groups due to the relaxation of regulatory powers.
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