中国政府对达赖集团不加区别的批评很可能是不准确的。并没有证据表明达赖本人及其代表的温和派参与了这场策划好的“暴动”，事实上这与达赖的哲学和一贯立场相违背，他有可能是被胁迫而最后参与进来的。中国的指责使他不得不采取强硬立场，站到暴乱策划人的身后。近二十年来，西藏独立运动逐渐在世界扩散，而且被新成长起来的年轻一代逐渐接管。这批人接受西方教育，有西方人权组织资助配合，已将西藏问题异化为“文化大屠杀”，将这个运动推向了更激进的方向。比如主张西藏独立的西藏青年会批评达赖喇嘛关于反对抵制北京奥运的立场。其主席次旺仁增说，中国不配主办奥运会，因为西藏的人权问题正在恶化。他们还批评达赖喇嘛的放弃独立立场，认为这是中了中国的圈套，谈判不会有成果。
达赖的温和政策已经被出生、成长在海外的二代藏人摒弃，而他本人也被淹没在反华资金资助的人权运动中。现在，激进派借助达赖的和平形象大搞抗议、暴力活动，然后倒打一耙，称中国政府血腥镇压，博取世界舆论同情，同时逼迫达赖放弃妥协立场。哥伦比亚大学的Robbie Barnett认为西藏的民族主义在这场运动中增强了，事实是二代藏人通过国际串联找到了共同的认同和追求，的确增强了民族主义。Tibetan Diaspora 需要一种凝聚。而西藏运动的迫切性却恰恰反映了藏人目前的分裂性。
中国在西藏的启蒙运动和现代化绝非像某些人宣传的那样没有支持者。十八年的相对平静起码表明大部分藏人对目前情况的基本认可。像中国的民主派一样，老一代藏民放弃了激进的暴力抵抗，转而希望通过发展和时间逐步取得更高的民族利益。但是这对激进派来说是不可接受的，沉默的时间越长，藏民丧失信仰、丧失民族认同、丧失反抗力的可能性就越大。奥运会是个绝佳的机会，因此激进派借机发动了攻势，制造了流血冲突。但是后果呢？
其一，必定有很大一部分藏人不满激进派的挑衅举动。社会秩序的破坏和汉人的愤怒可能导致西藏进步的获益藏人遭受重大损失。温和派的声音被压制，导致夹在两种民族主义其中的普通百姓承担后果，对两者都会不满和厌倦。
其二，如果政府出面镇压和平游行，汉人可能会对藏人同情（比如学生的校园静坐），政府可能面临很大压力。但是这一次激进派的暴动导致人员和财产损失，无异于满目排外和无政府主义，转而导致政府的镇压获得国内绝大多数人的支持。反而使政府更容易凝聚、借助民意。
奥运会前的一系列反华活动，本意是想中国政府施压，促成人权状况改善。但是很多原本正当的出发点很快被激进派绑架，抢先出招，制造轰动效应。然而后果却是适得其反。激进的策略只会遇到激烈的反对，而一旦事态恶化，双方都会被激进派占上风。中国的政策只会更严酷。而且，中国的民族主义也在上升期，利用奥运的敏感时刻释放激进的反华意图，一定会在中国逼出比政府更激进的民族情绪，从而导致中国正常的民主进步遭到扼杀，新疆、西藏的人权更加恶化。
西方的有识之士早已预见到这样的状况，奉劝激进的反华人权组织不要轻举妄动。可惜对中国的无知加上冒险主义甚嚣尘上，这些人恐怕是听不进去的。
3/18/2008
3/15/2008
Follow up of the March 13 Blog
Due to price control by the government and international price hike of soybean, major soybean oil producers have stopped production for this low end oil due to profit plummet. As I have said days ago, international commodity price rise, particularly food, has become a national security issue for China. Systemically, multinational companies have controlled global soybean production. They have a global positioning program in which soy bean production is located in Americas and oil production in China, taking advantages of the low cost of both land and labor. The consequences are: Chinese peasants stopped providing soy bean, because their cost was too high compare to the western hemisphere; soy bean price is determine in the commodity exchanges where speculator may easily hijack the valuation process; Chinese local producers are caught in between of a global soy bean price and a domestic administered soybean oil price. One of the things that triggered the speculation was the snow storm in southern China which dramatically reduced the yield of rapeseed. In the future, if the soy bean price went up high enough to yield a profitable margin, Chinese peasants could start planting it again. Also, at a certain point, the government will have to let go of the price cap. Before that happens, the only thing government can do is to subsidies the soy bean importation so that oil factories can run again.
In a word, no end in sight for the inflation.
In a word, no end in sight for the inflation.
西部大开发之殇
前面讲了西藏问题借奥运发飙，把印度的非暴力不合作抛到脑后，变得很暴力。藏教来源于笨教，萨满教的一种，从本源上看就与汉传的佛教不同，比较强调善恶冲突。这对达赖喇嘛宣传的和平佛教理论应该说是一种否定和讽刺。但是，一些藏族和尚和流氓的冲动（基本都属于无业游民，有革命性）并不能掩饰中国西部大开发政策的失误。
社会处在转型期的时候最容易引发动荡。西部大开发本身引发了西部社会经济的重大转型，从而产生了很高的社会预期和很大的贫富落差。一旦这种能够落差反映在民族差别上，就很容易引发宗教、民族冲突。短期内，与藏族上层联合保持政治稳定是可行的，但如果预期和实际之间的落差持续放大，不满情绪就会被海外组织利用，放大为骚乱甚至暴动。
根据自治区政府的报告，２００７年西藏自治区的经济总量３４２．１９亿元，排名居全国之末。但是，和自身进行纵向比较，西藏的经济增长速度很快，已经连续七年保持１２％以上的增长速度。深入分析这种增长速度可以发现，主要得益于三个方面：农牧业成长，矿产业发展，旅游产业规模快速扩张，年接待人次突破４００万。问题在于，这三项于城市藏族青年并无大利。尤其是矿业和旅游被认为是受汉人控制，有益于汉人，对藏族文化有害。我有一些亲身体会。比如藏区旅游，卖宝石的老板多是汉人，旅游公司老板也是汉人。接待我们的藏民一晚歌舞，收入却有一半交给了汉人老板。藏人私下告诉我，他们很多人都有去过印度的达赖喇嘛驻地参拜。
开车的藏人司机，一开始不愿说话，但是在我追问之下，大骂当地汉人政府。原因是他开了一家修车店，生意红火，却被副县长家人（竞争对手）嫉妒，结果被逼关门，投资亏损，沦为司机。
社会处在转型期的时候最容易引发动荡。西部大开发本身引发了西部社会经济的重大转型，从而产生了很高的社会预期和很大的贫富落差。一旦这种能够落差反映在民族差别上，就很容易引发宗教、民族冲突。短期内，与藏族上层联合保持政治稳定是可行的，但如果预期和实际之间的落差持续放大，不满情绪就会被海外组织利用，放大为骚乱甚至暴动。
根据自治区政府的报告，２００７年西藏自治区的经济总量３４２．１９亿元，排名居全国之末。但是，和自身进行纵向比较，西藏的经济增长速度很快，已经连续七年保持１２％以上的增长速度。深入分析这种增长速度可以发现，主要得益于三个方面：农牧业成长，矿产业发展，旅游产业规模快速扩张，年接待人次突破４００万。问题在于，这三项于城市藏族青年并无大利。尤其是矿业和旅游被认为是受汉人控制，有益于汉人，对藏族文化有害。我有一些亲身体会。比如藏区旅游，卖宝石的老板多是汉人，旅游公司老板也是汉人。接待我们的藏民一晚歌舞，收入却有一半交给了汉人老板。藏人私下告诉我，他们很多人都有去过印度的达赖喇嘛驻地参拜。
开车的藏人司机，一开始不愿说话，但是在我追问之下，大骂当地汉人政府。原因是他开了一家修车店，生意红火，却被副县长家人（竞争对手）嫉妒，结果被逼关门，投资亏损，沦为司机。
面对巨大的贫富差距，藏人的梦想屡屡受挫，有权势的汉人和部分亲汉藏人却飞黄腾达，使得下层的不满逐渐堆积起来。其中最为不满的要数宗教阶层。西藏的社会变革带来的是宗教堕落，寺院变成旅游景点；大量外族人涌入西藏旅游或者淘金，打破了平静的修行环境；达赖班禅的分治始终得不到统一；受到财富诱惑的人逐渐偏离了宗教训导。总之，中国的发展、进步在僧侣和文化民族主义者看来不过是帝国主义、殖民主义、物质主义的邪恶假面。
解铃还须系铃人，西部大开发必须摒除潜在的汉族中心主义发展观，不能仅仅以满足中国经济发展的资源需要为依归，而必须把藏族人民的各项需要优先发展，其中包括扩大藏族自治权，扩大藏族资产所有权，以及扩大藏族高等教育比例，等等。由此才能釜底抽薪，消除动乱的土壤。
Buck Up, Here It Comes!
Here comes the Olympic Crushers! (After a decade of relative peaceful co-existence.)
Uygurs, Tibetans and Human Rights activists are working together to bring down the Olympics and competing for international coverage for the events that happen and will happen in China. China has been preparing for the game over a decade, its opponents? No less.
Apparently the "East Turkestan Independence Movement" has been synchronized with the international terrorist organizations. They adopted a commonly used new tactic, sending young woman to do their dirty work of blowing up a plane full of inocent people. Can this action be justified by the Chinese oppression in Xinjiang? For the ETIM, the answer seems to be yes. Poor security guys at the Urumqi airport. They must have been looking at the beard evil-looking terrorist-like suicidal men, but happily ignored attractive exotic teenager girl. And now it is only March, God knows what will happen down the road.
But Richard Gere knows what will happen down the road in his beloved Tibetan community: coordinated rebellion. Current riot is just a prelude of what could happen in the months to come. According to Gere, this is sporadic and spontaneous, not a conspiracy or a planned sabotage, and the organized gang is still waiting for the signal. In another word, this is just a test of water, some people got out of hand and acted earlier than planned. Again, is it justified in the name of "Tibetan Freedom" to wreck, burn, intimidate or even kill? According to the Buddhist Gere, YES.
So in order to have these so called hollywood celebrities to not boycotting the Olympics, China must follow the international rules, meaning give up your territorial integrity, national sovereignty, national interest, and even national security before you show the world that you are a sports fan. Which is more important? Ask the Chinese people, idiot.
I have seen too much blackmail lately, disguised as good will, moral teaching, sentimental appeal, and outright condemnation. Based on the Western Human Rights records, China deserves continuous pressure to improve its domestic governace. But all these threat and hysterical accusations that try to profit from a simple sports event make me sick, alienated, and sometimes angry when innocent people's lives got involved for no particular reason.
Historically, the Olympics are dangerous political games. Many interest groups have bet on the games and won considerablelly. Maybe it will happen again. I seriously doubt that the Chinese government and the Chinese people are ready to deal with what could happen. For a "face-loving" government and people, a severe damage to the centennial opportunity is unthinkable and unacceptable. But when the evil minds was planning 9/11 for years, who could have thought about the scale of the attack in America, let alone stopping it?
Unfortunately for the voodoo planners, as the Chinese old saying put it, "misfortunes don't travel alone". Of course the other misfortune is the Bear Stearns. When you are loosing money, nothing else matters.
Uygurs, Tibetans and Human Rights activists are working together to bring down the Olympics and competing for international coverage for the events that happen and will happen in China. China has been preparing for the game over a decade, its opponents? No less.
Apparently the "East Turkestan Independence Movement" has been synchronized with the international terrorist organizations. They adopted a commonly used new tactic, sending young woman to do their dirty work of blowing up a plane full of inocent people. Can this action be justified by the Chinese oppression in Xinjiang? For the ETIM, the answer seems to be yes. Poor security guys at the Urumqi airport. They must have been looking at the beard evil-looking terrorist-like suicidal men, but happily ignored attractive exotic teenager girl. And now it is only March, God knows what will happen down the road.
But Richard Gere knows what will happen down the road in his beloved Tibetan community: coordinated rebellion. Current riot is just a prelude of what could happen in the months to come. According to Gere, this is sporadic and spontaneous, not a conspiracy or a planned sabotage, and the organized gang is still waiting for the signal. In another word, this is just a test of water, some people got out of hand and acted earlier than planned. Again, is it justified in the name of "Tibetan Freedom" to wreck, burn, intimidate or even kill? According to the Buddhist Gere, YES.
So in order to have these so called hollywood celebrities to not boycotting the Olympics, China must follow the international rules, meaning give up your territorial integrity, national sovereignty, national interest, and even national security before you show the world that you are a sports fan. Which is more important? Ask the Chinese people, idiot.
I have seen too much blackmail lately, disguised as good will, moral teaching, sentimental appeal, and outright condemnation. Based on the Western Human Rights records, China deserves continuous pressure to improve its domestic governace. But all these threat and hysterical accusations that try to profit from a simple sports event make me sick, alienated, and sometimes angry when innocent people's lives got involved for no particular reason.
Historically, the Olympics are dangerous political games. Many interest groups have bet on the games and won considerablelly. Maybe it will happen again. I seriously doubt that the Chinese government and the Chinese people are ready to deal with what could happen. For a "face-loving" government and people, a severe damage to the centennial opportunity is unthinkable and unacceptable. But when the evil minds was planning 9/11 for years, who could have thought about the scale of the attack in America, let alone stopping it?
Unfortunately for the voodoo planners, as the Chinese old saying put it, "misfortunes don't travel alone". Of course the other misfortune is the Bear Stearns. When you are loosing money, nothing else matters.
3/14/2008
中国资本市场暴露出“中国模式”的严重问题
不论学术界如何评论，我个人认为出自“北京共识”的“中国模式”还是现实存在的。可以说“中国模式”是转型期的一种特殊政治经济模式，以政治威权加混合经济构成的利用全球化推行新重商主义的一种模式。这种模式的成功有着非常特殊的国际政治经济环境和国内历史文化基础。30年来在政府的指导、调控、推动之下，中国的经济获得了飞速的发展。以GDP扩张为标志的政府也因此有了执政合法性。在这个过程中，中国政府摸索出了一套控制规模宏大的经济体系的办法，抓大放小，控制资源，放开市场。如此一来，不仅与资源（如土地、人口、矿产）和大产业（电力、能源、设备制造）挂钩的财政收入飞速增加，中国的国民所得也得益于私营企业的成长而大幅增加了。然而，中国的经济始终困扰于一个制度性的根本问题，即企业的所有权结构是什么？如何在此结构之下安排合理、高效的公司治理？对于这个问题，中国政府开始了前所未有的一系列探索。在参照西方国家和亚洲新兴国家之后，我们把国营转变成国有，将所有权和经营权分离，发明了国资委统一管理国有资产，引入中外战略投资者改进公司治理，提高盈利能力等等。国家对经营干预的收缩和对低效资产的剥离有效的促进了目前国有大型企业的规模和效益，使其竞争力大大增强了。以至于国家进一步希望这些企业“走出去”，参与激烈的国际竞争。
然而这种混合式制度体系在所谓“股权分制改革”和“做大做强”的号召下被放进中国的制度不健全的资本市场中加以检验时，便暴露出了极大的弱点。首先，使这个所谓资本市场“管理层”的“此地无银三百两”作风。中国资本市场上的大部分资产是不可流通的国有控股资产，这就预先决定了市场价格的不准确性。因为没有办法进行准确的资产测算，也就谈不上“合理”的价值。这样一来，在流动性过剩、货币升值、实际负利率、缺乏多种保值渠道的条件下，流通证券就很容易被高估。更何况随意更改交易印花税和背后指导基金经营等手段的使用。这样一个根本上的“政策市”却被称为“市场化运作”，岂不是穿了皇帝的新衣吗？
其二，资本市场上的国有控股公司不仅所有权和经营权由于种种原因没有真正分离，其所运营的市场环境也是不存在的。很多公司不仅是一位国家盈利为目的的而且是以为人民服务为目的的。在涉及到国计民生问题的时候，利润要为国家安全社会稳定让路，价格要服从指挥服务人民。那么公开资本市场的为投资者创造价值的基本理念在哪里呢？由此可见，要把社会主义的粥放到资本主义的锅里煮是多么的困难。好比一支军队进入一个区域却不知道是执行打击敌人的任务还是人道救援的任务。结果可向而知。
其三，市场是国家的，市场主体是国家控制的，参与者却是按照资本主力原则活动的机构和个体。当市场主体要求再融资的时候，问题来了。这个钱到底是去创造财富还是去富国强兵了？站在国家的立场当然可以说，一而二，二而一，一样的。可是站在理性人的角度就必须质疑，后者不一定使投资者利益最大化。所以，市场的一时涨跌不是问题，政府救不救市也不是根本问题（没有压市何须救市？），甚至连经济短期的走势也不是问题，根本的问题在于有中国特色的市场经济中到底如何处理政府和市场的关系？有人以为股权分制改革回答了这个问题，但实际上只是暂时回避了这个问题，制造了一年的虚伪繁荣。
在资本市场兴起之前，中国还没有发展到必须回答这个问题的时候。首先，投资来自于国际资本，组成合资公司，其次，有国家银行政策性贷款，小企业通过私人集资信贷，或者地下钱庄。总之，直接融资和个人与国家的简单存款关系，使得资本的市场化问题通过专门渠道完成了。但是，随着我国资本积累的发展和与世界“接轨”的需要，这个冲突现在变得不可避免了。可悲的是，在这场闹剧中，牺牲的、当炮灰的、赔得血本无归的全部都是普通民众，被称之为缺乏风险意识、需要教育的老百姓。直到最后，受到欺骗的人们才发现，中国的所谓资本市场不过是被设置好的圈套和赌局，运气好的，摸爬滚打过的人没准儿可以全身而退、甚至一夜暴富，而大多数人做了权力和财富的垫脚石，完成了又一次赤裸裸的资本原始积累。
有人说“党的十七大报告提出“要创造条件让更多的居民拥有财产性收入”，这被视为资本大众化时代的开端。如果目前的政策与此背道而驰，不以竞争能力为前提，一味使资金倾斜到大公司、收益倾斜到大机构，挤泡沫挤成实体经济内伤，这样的市场有必要进行第二次股改，甚至数次股改。”的确有这个必要。有必要分清真正的国有和私有，区分两个不同市场，两种不同规则，或者一场两制。以真正的市场原则管理私营的、中小盘的、创业板的、期货的、金融衍生的资本市场，而将所谓蓝筹、红筹隔离出来，另立一套融资规范以免扰乱市场。
另外，对投资者进行教育也是应该的。就像驾驶执照一样，投资人也应该有执照。目前只有专业人士才需要取得执照，而“炒股票”则无需任何凭证、资质。这样，无论政府怎样三番五次强调风险，没有一个真正统一的教育机会和系统的知识传送。要求开立帐户前交费学习理财知识，由国家和券商联合出资短期培训，合格才可进行交易，可以起到更好的效果。
总之，事在人为，这一关是绕不过去的。中国可以借这次“假牛市”机会真正好好改造一下资本市场，为未来打一个坚实的基础。
一觉睡醒以后发现财经上有一篇汪丁丁的文章《中国改革的逻辑》http://www.caijing.com.cn/home/opinion/other/2007-11-13/37698.shtml
感觉颇为相似，甚为赞同。推荐。
然而这种混合式制度体系在所谓“股权分制改革”和“做大做强”的号召下被放进中国的制度不健全的资本市场中加以检验时，便暴露出了极大的弱点。首先，使这个所谓资本市场“管理层”的“此地无银三百两”作风。中国资本市场上的大部分资产是不可流通的国有控股资产，这就预先决定了市场价格的不准确性。因为没有办法进行准确的资产测算，也就谈不上“合理”的价值。这样一来，在流动性过剩、货币升值、实际负利率、缺乏多种保值渠道的条件下，流通证券就很容易被高估。更何况随意更改交易印花税和背后指导基金经营等手段的使用。这样一个根本上的“政策市”却被称为“市场化运作”，岂不是穿了皇帝的新衣吗？
其二，资本市场上的国有控股公司不仅所有权和经营权由于种种原因没有真正分离，其所运营的市场环境也是不存在的。很多公司不仅是一位国家盈利为目的的而且是以为人民服务为目的的。在涉及到国计民生问题的时候，利润要为国家安全社会稳定让路，价格要服从指挥服务人民。那么公开资本市场的为投资者创造价值的基本理念在哪里呢？由此可见，要把社会主义的粥放到资本主义的锅里煮是多么的困难。好比一支军队进入一个区域却不知道是执行打击敌人的任务还是人道救援的任务。结果可向而知。
其三，市场是国家的，市场主体是国家控制的，参与者却是按照资本主力原则活动的机构和个体。当市场主体要求再融资的时候，问题来了。这个钱到底是去创造财富还是去富国强兵了？站在国家的立场当然可以说，一而二，二而一，一样的。可是站在理性人的角度就必须质疑，后者不一定使投资者利益最大化。所以，市场的一时涨跌不是问题，政府救不救市也不是根本问题（没有压市何须救市？），甚至连经济短期的走势也不是问题，根本的问题在于有中国特色的市场经济中到底如何处理政府和市场的关系？有人以为股权分制改革回答了这个问题，但实际上只是暂时回避了这个问题，制造了一年的虚伪繁荣。
在资本市场兴起之前，中国还没有发展到必须回答这个问题的时候。首先，投资来自于国际资本，组成合资公司，其次，有国家银行政策性贷款，小企业通过私人集资信贷，或者地下钱庄。总之，直接融资和个人与国家的简单存款关系，使得资本的市场化问题通过专门渠道完成了。但是，随着我国资本积累的发展和与世界“接轨”的需要，这个冲突现在变得不可避免了。可悲的是，在这场闹剧中，牺牲的、当炮灰的、赔得血本无归的全部都是普通民众，被称之为缺乏风险意识、需要教育的老百姓。直到最后，受到欺骗的人们才发现，中国的所谓资本市场不过是被设置好的圈套和赌局，运气好的，摸爬滚打过的人没准儿可以全身而退、甚至一夜暴富，而大多数人做了权力和财富的垫脚石，完成了又一次赤裸裸的资本原始积累。
有人说“党的十七大报告提出“要创造条件让更多的居民拥有财产性收入”，这被视为资本大众化时代的开端。如果目前的政策与此背道而驰，不以竞争能力为前提，一味使资金倾斜到大公司、收益倾斜到大机构，挤泡沫挤成实体经济内伤，这样的市场有必要进行第二次股改，甚至数次股改。”的确有这个必要。有必要分清真正的国有和私有，区分两个不同市场，两种不同规则，或者一场两制。以真正的市场原则管理私营的、中小盘的、创业板的、期货的、金融衍生的资本市场，而将所谓蓝筹、红筹隔离出来，另立一套融资规范以免扰乱市场。
另外，对投资者进行教育也是应该的。就像驾驶执照一样，投资人也应该有执照。目前只有专业人士才需要取得执照，而“炒股票”则无需任何凭证、资质。这样，无论政府怎样三番五次强调风险，没有一个真正统一的教育机会和系统的知识传送。要求开立帐户前交费学习理财知识，由国家和券商联合出资短期培训，合格才可进行交易，可以起到更好的效果。
总之，事在人为，这一关是绕不过去的。中国可以借这次“假牛市”机会真正好好改造一下资本市场，为未来打一个坚实的基础。
一觉睡醒以后发现财经上有一篇汪丁丁的文章《中国改革的逻辑》http://www.caijing.com.cn/home/opinion/other/2007-11-13/37698.shtml
感觉颇为相似，甚为赞同。推荐。
3/13/2008
Food Safety and Food Security
On March 9, 2008, New York Times has an article "A Global Need for Grain that Farms Can't Fill", which basically reflects the fundamental transition of the world economic landscape. It is a chain reaction:
1. Globalization embarked a global redistribution of capital and led to a period of rapid industrialization of the third world, particularly Asia countries like China and India.
2. Industrialization drives a huge wave of urbanization and reallocation of land use.
3. General economic development generates great demand, including all kinds of natural resources and food.
4. Former balance was disrupted by increasing demand and limited supply. Worldwide inflation is spiraling upward, driven particularly by the perceived bottleneck of energy insufficiency.
5. Energy cost and industrial byproducts, shrinking agricultural land and spiking global warming, are lifting food prices, which reinforce the overall inflation in the world.
6. Energy scarcity is transmitting from oil and coal to other new energy sources. With the oil overpassing $110, countries go to coal and use new coal technology, then the price of coal doubled. Others turn to nuclear, uranium prices jump. Automobile societies try to rely on hybrid, price of battery component lithium doubled. EU and US have realized that ethanol from corn or sugar cane was a bad idea that contributed to the wild inflation of food prices. Every alternative is causing strain of the next natural resource.
The truth is, with current development pattern, the earth cannot afford an all out Americanization. Without a recycling economic infrastructure, we are heading into a disaster.
Alan Greenspan was right in pointing out that the economic prosperity started with the end of the cold war and would end with global inflation. (Of course he hand-made the fuse for the bomb: the sub-prime credit meltdown.) But he didn't offer a solution. And yet, if his bubble theory is also correct, the commodity bubble is definitely making some people rich, but generally by killing everyone else in the economy.
Back to the topic. Rising food price and relative decline of food supply have spilled over the economic realm and run into security arena. There have been minor conflicts around the world on food and water, but so far, world food market is running OK to serve the need of billions. However, recent food safety issue is disturbing the market and has a potential to threat its healthy function.
Globalization not only globalized industrial goods, but also agricultural goods, including aqua products. World wheat supply is depending upon the production of a number of countries like America and Australia; rice, Southeast Asia; fish farming, China and Vietnam, etc. China is especially productive in terms of processed food due to its cheap labor and food price. Now if something happens to the major food base, food security is in danger. Similarly, if something happens to the major food processing base, food safety as well as security will be in danger. This is a typical unconventional threat to global security.
For instance, Japan imports 90% of its processed food from other countries like China. The dumpling incident is hurting Chinese producers on the one hand and Japanese consumers and retailers on the other. New safety scrutiny has significantly delayed food delivery to Japan and animosity between the two countries has prolonged the prosecution process and depleted Japanese food industries' inventory. Further protraction of the incident will not only damage bilateral relations but force Japan to search for alternative food sources, which in the short run will dramatically inflate the food prices and pressure its already weakened economy.
On the Chinese side, inflation has long been a national security issue. The runaway inflation in the late 1940s led to the demise of the KMT government on the mainland, and the late 1980s to the Tiananmen movement. (If we go back 2000 years, many more cases can reveal the destructive force of inflation.) Therefore, the government has to treat its seriously. Current inflation is mainly induced by mounting food price, meat in particular. Other than obvious reasons like disease and natural catastrophe, policy lag is the fundamental problem. Nationalized land ownership and Hukou system are major obstacles on optimizing land use and improving agriculture productivity. Without flexible land ownership, land resource allocation is out of the market control and extremely biased toward powerful interest groups. Also, currently arrangement makes rural entrepreneurship and micro-financing difficult. Hukou system not only creates huge urban problem by burdening the local government and letting industrial capitals profit from free ride on public expenses, but also dries out the rural labor poor by preventing a proper rural labor market. Moreover, rising cost for fertilizer and fuel are squeezing the margin of the farmers, diminishing the benefit of the cancellation of government taxes.
The ongoing food price inflation presents an opportunity for the government to execute some of the delayed reforms in the rural area. More liberalized, market-driven, efficient (maybe high-tech?) and environmentally friendly agriculture is needed to sustain China's development and to reduce the risk of food security.
1. Globalization embarked a global redistribution of capital and led to a period of rapid industrialization of the third world, particularly Asia countries like China and India.
2. Industrialization drives a huge wave of urbanization and reallocation of land use.
3. General economic development generates great demand, including all kinds of natural resources and food.
4. Former balance was disrupted by increasing demand and limited supply. Worldwide inflation is spiraling upward, driven particularly by the perceived bottleneck of energy insufficiency.
5. Energy cost and industrial byproducts, shrinking agricultural land and spiking global warming, are lifting food prices, which reinforce the overall inflation in the world.
6. Energy scarcity is transmitting from oil and coal to other new energy sources. With the oil overpassing $110, countries go to coal and use new coal technology, then the price of coal doubled. Others turn to nuclear, uranium prices jump. Automobile societies try to rely on hybrid, price of battery component lithium doubled. EU and US have realized that ethanol from corn or sugar cane was a bad idea that contributed to the wild inflation of food prices. Every alternative is causing strain of the next natural resource.
The truth is, with current development pattern, the earth cannot afford an all out Americanization. Without a recycling economic infrastructure, we are heading into a disaster.
Alan Greenspan was right in pointing out that the economic prosperity started with the end of the cold war and would end with global inflation. (Of course he hand-made the fuse for the bomb: the sub-prime credit meltdown.) But he didn't offer a solution. And yet, if his bubble theory is also correct, the commodity bubble is definitely making some people rich, but generally by killing everyone else in the economy.
Back to the topic. Rising food price and relative decline of food supply have spilled over the economic realm and run into security arena. There have been minor conflicts around the world on food and water, but so far, world food market is running OK to serve the need of billions. However, recent food safety issue is disturbing the market and has a potential to threat its healthy function.
Globalization not only globalized industrial goods, but also agricultural goods, including aqua products. World wheat supply is depending upon the production of a number of countries like America and Australia; rice, Southeast Asia; fish farming, China and Vietnam, etc. China is especially productive in terms of processed food due to its cheap labor and food price. Now if something happens to the major food base, food security is in danger. Similarly, if something happens to the major food processing base, food safety as well as security will be in danger. This is a typical unconventional threat to global security.
For instance, Japan imports 90% of its processed food from other countries like China. The dumpling incident is hurting Chinese producers on the one hand and Japanese consumers and retailers on the other. New safety scrutiny has significantly delayed food delivery to Japan and animosity between the two countries has prolonged the prosecution process and depleted Japanese food industries' inventory. Further protraction of the incident will not only damage bilateral relations but force Japan to search for alternative food sources, which in the short run will dramatically inflate the food prices and pressure its already weakened economy.
On the Chinese side, inflation has long been a national security issue. The runaway inflation in the late 1940s led to the demise of the KMT government on the mainland, and the late 1980s to the Tiananmen movement. (If we go back 2000 years, many more cases can reveal the destructive force of inflation.) Therefore, the government has to treat its seriously. Current inflation is mainly induced by mounting food price, meat in particular. Other than obvious reasons like disease and natural catastrophe, policy lag is the fundamental problem. Nationalized land ownership and Hukou system are major obstacles on optimizing land use and improving agriculture productivity. Without flexible land ownership, land resource allocation is out of the market control and extremely biased toward powerful interest groups. Also, currently arrangement makes rural entrepreneurship and micro-financing difficult. Hukou system not only creates huge urban problem by burdening the local government and letting industrial capitals profit from free ride on public expenses, but also dries out the rural labor poor by preventing a proper rural labor market. Moreover, rising cost for fertilizer and fuel are squeezing the margin of the farmers, diminishing the benefit of the cancellation of government taxes.
The ongoing food price inflation presents an opportunity for the government to execute some of the delayed reforms in the rural area. More liberalized, market-driven, efficient (maybe high-tech?) and environmentally friendly agriculture is needed to sustain China's development and to reduce the risk of food security.
3/07/2008
Senate Bill has a potential to disrupt U.S.-China Trade
The Senate approved a measure on Thursday to overhaul the consumer product laws and strengthen the safety agency that oversees the marketplace. Besides increasing the staff and budget of the Consumer Product Safety Commission, the legislation would create "a public database of complaints about products and empower state prosecutors to act if they think the federal government is not doing enough to protect consumers."
The bill would make mandatory many toy safety standards that are now voluntary and as part of that change require that toys be tested in compliance with a comprehensive set of rules.
The bill would also increase the possible maximum penalty for violations to $20 million, from the current $1.25 million. And it would make it a crime for a company to sell a product that has been recalled.
The Bush administration statement after the bill was passed, though criticized it, did not threaten a veto. The House will be under pressure to reconcile with the Senate bill and it looks like that some of these measures will remain unaltered.
The implications for the American and Chinese business:
1. The bill would burden the businesses. It would “create a playground for plaintiffs’ attorneys.” In deed, if the power is lowered to the state level, it could go out of hand easily and cause producers and importers alike huge amount of time and money to settle with all kinds of claims. In places where protectionism and populism sentiment is high, Chinese and other imported products would be subject to extreme scrutiny and put through lengthy and costly bureaucratic and legal processes.
2. The bill would create a database for circulating “frivolous complaints" filed by interest groups and the database would be used “to anonymously smear companies” by their competitors. Using that database, info of a local incident could spread throughout the country and develop into a national witch-hunt.
3. The bill would require laboratories that test certain children’s products for safety to be independent and privately owned. Frequent use of this provision may cause producers a lot to pay for the tests and certain corruption may occur when certain private lab is designated.
4. The bill would extend whistle-blower protections to employees who disclose safety violations. This could be easily used against Chinese firms in which unsatisfied employees could be picked up by interest groups and speak against their employer.
After all, the purpose of this bill is to safeguard American consumers and to a large extent, it would do well. But after careful examination of the details, you will find disturbing potentials for future trade conflict. The bill is somewhat overreacting than the House bill and is cost-inflating at least.
The bill would make mandatory many toy safety standards that are now voluntary and as part of that change require that toys be tested in compliance with a comprehensive set of rules.
The bill would also increase the possible maximum penalty for violations to $20 million, from the current $1.25 million. And it would make it a crime for a company to sell a product that has been recalled.
The Bush administration statement after the bill was passed, though criticized it, did not threaten a veto. The House will be under pressure to reconcile with the Senate bill and it looks like that some of these measures will remain unaltered.
The implications for the American and Chinese business:
1. The bill would burden the businesses. It would “create a playground for plaintiffs’ attorneys.” In deed, if the power is lowered to the state level, it could go out of hand easily and cause producers and importers alike huge amount of time and money to settle with all kinds of claims. In places where protectionism and populism sentiment is high, Chinese and other imported products would be subject to extreme scrutiny and put through lengthy and costly bureaucratic and legal processes.
2. The bill would create a database for circulating “frivolous complaints" filed by interest groups and the database would be used “to anonymously smear companies” by their competitors. Using that database, info of a local incident could spread throughout the country and develop into a national witch-hunt.
3. The bill would require laboratories that test certain children’s products for safety to be independent and privately owned. Frequent use of this provision may cause producers a lot to pay for the tests and certain corruption may occur when certain private lab is designated.
4. The bill would extend whistle-blower protections to employees who disclose safety violations. This could be easily used against Chinese firms in which unsatisfied employees could be picked up by interest groups and speak against their employer.
After all, the purpose of this bill is to safeguard American consumers and to a large extent, it would do well. But after careful examination of the details, you will find disturbing potentials for future trade conflict. The bill is somewhat overreacting than the House bill and is cost-inflating at least.
3/06/2008
农业补贴与农产品
刚才和朋友聊天，忽然想到农业在气候变化中的作用。以往我们总是认为工业是唯一造成全球变暖的罪魁祸首。但是实际上联合国早就指出，人类的农业活动也做了不少“贡献”，比如牲畜的“废弃”，开荒造田导致的森林退化，筑坝灌溉造成的微观气候变化等等。目前新一轮的农业工业化更加剧了这种趋势。一方面，农业生产本身更加工业化了，农业机械、化肥的广泛使用，冲初级产品到最终产品的一系列包装等等。另一方面，农产品如玉米甘蔗更多的被用作工业原料，制造燃料而不是食物。气候变暖、能源短缺与农产品价格之间形成了恶性循环，导致通货膨胀和更严重的环境退化，加剧了气候变暖。
防止气候变暖的国际谈判当中，限制温室气体排放是核心，但着眼点是工业排放和汽车排放。然而发达国家的农业补贴实际上在很大程度上贡献了大量温室气体排放。农业补贴和农业壁垒致使发达国家农产品价格扭曲、资源浪费，并迫使发展中国家农业生产水平低下，农业改进资本不足。现在，燃料农业的扩张更是压迫了传统农业，导致更大规模的饥荒和社会动乱。如果发达国家不能尽快向发展中国家转移技术，帮助发展中国家更新基础设施，并且削减农业补贴、促进发展中国家农业缩减面积提高效率，那么环境恶化、气候变暖会更加严重。
防止气候变暖的国际谈判当中，限制温室气体排放是核心，但着眼点是工业排放和汽车排放。然而发达国家的农业补贴实际上在很大程度上贡献了大量温室气体排放。农业补贴和农业壁垒致使发达国家农产品价格扭曲、资源浪费，并迫使发展中国家农业生产水平低下，农业改进资本不足。现在，燃料农业的扩张更是压迫了传统农业，导致更大规模的饥荒和社会动乱。如果发达国家不能尽快向发展中国家转移技术，帮助发展中国家更新基础设施，并且削减农业补贴、促进发展中国家农业缩减面积提高效率，那么环境恶化、气候变暖会更加严重。
论为时尚早
最近“为时尚早”这个词真的很时髦。很多人都把这个词挂在嘴边，表示各种不同的内涵：反对、愤怒、嘲笑、困惑、无奈，等等。比如美国走出次贷危机“为时尚早”，判断饺子事件投毒过程发生在中国还是日本“为时尚早”，说中国楼市出现拐点“为时尚早”，说原油价格触顶“为时尚早”，认为奥巴马已经稳拿民主党提名“为时尚早”，连陈良宇案结案都“为时尚早”。好像很多的事情都有媒体、传言、或者对手提出不成熟的结论，造成不愿见的后果。问题是结论总是要出的，后果总是要有的，只不过“为时尚早”，现在不便说，或者不能说，或者根本就不知道该怎么说。
“为时尚早”，可能是真的。我们这个时代，媒体扮演了如此重要的角色，而主体又是如此的多元化，以至于很多本来不重要、不清楚、有待时间检验的东西变成社会关注的焦点，人们热议的中心，甚至国际关系的死结。狼来了重复多次，狼就真的来了。而当社会急切等待答案的时候，“为时尚早”成了国际标准答案，一来可以不置可否，二来显得颇为慎重，三来为问题解决赢得时间，英明啊！
“为时尚早”，也可能是假的。这个词一说出来可以是推卸责任，可以是搪塞拖延，更可能是暗藏阴谋。为时尚早关键在于“时”，决与不决要看时间早晚，换言之，要等条件成熟。把责任推给空洞的“时间”而不是具体的行为主体，的确妙不可言。时间就是主动权，“为时尚早”即变被动为主动。只不过主动不见得正确，结局也不见得尽如人意罢了。
所以说，“为时尚早”可以用，但不可多用，该解决问题，提出对策，公开信息的时候，就应该拿出对人民负责、越早越好的作风来。
“为时尚早”，可能是真的。我们这个时代，媒体扮演了如此重要的角色，而主体又是如此的多元化，以至于很多本来不重要、不清楚、有待时间检验的东西变成社会关注的焦点，人们热议的中心，甚至国际关系的死结。狼来了重复多次，狼就真的来了。而当社会急切等待答案的时候，“为时尚早”成了国际标准答案，一来可以不置可否，二来显得颇为慎重，三来为问题解决赢得时间，英明啊！
“为时尚早”，也可能是假的。这个词一说出来可以是推卸责任，可以是搪塞拖延，更可能是暗藏阴谋。为时尚早关键在于“时”，决与不决要看时间早晚，换言之，要等条件成熟。把责任推给空洞的“时间”而不是具体的行为主体，的确妙不可言。时间就是主动权，“为时尚早”即变被动为主动。只不过主动不见得正确，结局也不见得尽如人意罢了。
所以说，“为时尚早”可以用，但不可多用，该解决问题，提出对策，公开信息的时候，就应该拿出对人民负责、越早越好的作风来。
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)