After I came to the U.S. and witnessed the way Americans spent their money, I started to understand how "globalization" works: Americans consume, Chinese save. And that is the engine of the 21st century global economy. For a while, I thought this could work well for a decade or so, but apparently things were not walking, they were running, at a much faster speed than I assumed.
For one thing, the Chinese save too much. They sell everything now to the whole world, not just America, but they rarely spend. Why? one, income disparity is unbelievably high; second, without proper social safety net, no one dares to waste money; third, most resources are in the hands of monopolies, particularly housing, which squeeze people's wallet thin.
For another thing, the Americans spend too much. Getting money is easy, everyone, the Chinese, Japanese, Koreas, Europeans, Singaporeans, and Saudis, is willing to borrow money to the Americans. Why not, America is not african, you will get your money back, besides, who else lives on debt? The creativity of the Wall Street financial engineers makes borrowing almost an art with mathematical beauty. After all, human greed overwhelms all: if you can consume and enjoy today, why wait until tomorrow? Plus, there is a little war going on over there, costing $ 300 million a day. If Americans forgot to pay their ballooning mortgage and causing a lost of $400 billion, don't worry, Wall Streeters will just gas them with $3 a gallon and borrow from other sovereign funds to hedge off the problem.
However, this cannot last. The engine works only if the lender is generous and the debtor is conservative. Otherwise the harmony will be disturbed and the engine broken.
Now the chain reaction starts to unravel. When the Blackstone said they want money, CIC invested; when Morgan Stanley said they need money, CIC invested again; when Citi said they desire money, CDB stumbled. Before I get on, may I ask where are we heading?
The Chinese government may curb inflation by issuing executive orders and the American government may stimulate the economy by injecting $140 billion, but both may fail to achieve their goal, unless they can fix the engin: help Chinese to spend and Americans to save.
Of course, Dual-Core will be promising, with EU-China engine works together with the U.S.-China one, but be realistic, Europeans are thrifty and stingy, if the latter doesn't work, how long do youn think the former will last?
1/16/2008
Chinese cars are coming?
Not yet, but soon. That's the answer you get from the Detroit auto show.
There are simply too many problems for the auto makers in China to figure out before they can set foot on American soil. Yes, Chinese cars are relatively cheap (before Tata's $2500 motor car), but at what cost? safety, quality, service... And, apparently the Chinese automakers are not sincere about opening up the American market: they didn't even do their homework on English and PowerPoint! The fact is business in China are fighting for low price, not sophistication. Though they have improved productivity rapidly thanks to the vast investment in machinery, their marketing, sales, and after market services are still far behind American market standard. Finally, there's a Pacific Ocean of culture that the automakers have to overcome. They have to design cars specifically for American consumer, no less than a challenge to make cars.
However, if the Chinese are determined to thrust into the American market, undoubtedly world No.1, they will achieve it sooner or later. The best way is through M&A and outsourcing marketing, service, and R&D.
With the rising capital market in China, it's easier to finance the expansion of the auto industry overseas. Overall, this process will be quick. The Chinese auto industry is using Mao's rural surrounding urban model to improving its global position. New markets in developing countries will help China to acquire better knowledge soon.
No matter what, cars from China should be perceived as a pure gain for America as long as they are properly regulated by American agencies: 1. they will lower the price; 2. they will create jobs and opportunities in both countries; 3. they can absorb some of the huge surplus in the Chinese Treasury by for of state investment in the auto industry (better than pouring money into American financial asset alone).
There are simply too many problems for the auto makers in China to figure out before they can set foot on American soil. Yes, Chinese cars are relatively cheap (before Tata's $2500 motor car), but at what cost? safety, quality, service... And, apparently the Chinese automakers are not sincere about opening up the American market: they didn't even do their homework on English and PowerPoint! The fact is business in China are fighting for low price, not sophistication. Though they have improved productivity rapidly thanks to the vast investment in machinery, their marketing, sales, and after market services are still far behind American market standard. Finally, there's a Pacific Ocean of culture that the automakers have to overcome. They have to design cars specifically for American consumer, no less than a challenge to make cars.
However, if the Chinese are determined to thrust into the American market, undoubtedly world No.1, they will achieve it sooner or later. The best way is through M&A and outsourcing marketing, service, and R&D.
With the rising capital market in China, it's easier to finance the expansion of the auto industry overseas. Overall, this process will be quick. The Chinese auto industry is using Mao's rural surrounding urban model to improving its global position. New markets in developing countries will help China to acquire better knowledge soon.
No matter what, cars from China should be perceived as a pure gain for America as long as they are properly regulated by American agencies: 1. they will lower the price; 2. they will create jobs and opportunities in both countries; 3. they can absorb some of the huge surplus in the Chinese Treasury by for of state investment in the auto industry (better than pouring money into American financial asset alone).
1/13/2008
Buy Taiwan Stocks!
Unstable political arena in Taiwan and dire economic outlook in America dragged the Taiwan stock market down in the beginning of the new year. Last year, Taiwan stock index run like a roller coaster, just as dazzling as the Shanghai index. But people are too shocked by the crazy "Chinese small investor", and the "infected" Hong Kong market, they forgot Taiwan had a wonderful ride before. This quarter, I believe, for long term investors there will be a golden opportunity. Taiwan's strength is consumer electronics and if you look at the fundamentals, they remain strong. If we learned something from yesterday's Taiwan election, that would be "it's the economy, stupid!" Well, apparently, Chen "local" forgot there is something called "global" and obviously, going global for Taiwan means openning up to the Mainland. Now with the KMT holding the majority in the TW legislative Yuan and a very possible KMT president making policies in the office 68 days from now, we should expect that many agreements made between the CCP and the KMT will be honored gradually. Direct flight, tourism, CEPA, and incoming investment can be flooding in within 2 years. After presidential election, we may expect 4 years relative stable political management, and it will be a great opportunity for Taiwan to reinvest in education, health care, infrastructure, and international competitiveness. Friendly cross strait relations may benefit Taiwan business in terms of bigger market, more contracts, and better treatment, which will help Taiwan companies to fend off the impact of the U.S. recession. Besides, current Taiwan stock average PE ratio is about 1/3-1/4 that of the mainland A shares, and as attractive (maybe even better) as the Hong Kong ones. In any case, Taiwan people spoke and democracy consolidated. Finally, there's some light.
Suggestions to the American government: be a better broker, make a clear stand and push two sides to sit down, talk, and make progress, create a regional security mechanism to maintain peace and stability but leave cross strait negotiation to the Chinese alone.
Suggestions to the Chinese governement: enlarge beneficial package to the Taiwanese, find a way to allow Taiwan to participate in more non-sovereign international organizations, give the opportunity to Taiwan elites and allow them to work as professionals in international organizations as well as in mainland China, exchange democratic election experience on the village level and health care system, cooperate on environment, technology, and any possible area.
Suggestions to the American government: be a better broker, make a clear stand and push two sides to sit down, talk, and make progress, create a regional security mechanism to maintain peace and stability but leave cross strait negotiation to the Chinese alone.
Suggestions to the Chinese governement: enlarge beneficial package to the Taiwanese, find a way to allow Taiwan to participate in more non-sovereign international organizations, give the opportunity to Taiwan elites and allow them to work as professionals in international organizations as well as in mainland China, exchange democratic election experience on the village level and health care system, cooperate on environment, technology, and any possible area.
1/11/2008
China's real estate market
According to recent report and analysis, housing price is dropping, in some areas as fast as in the U.S., in China's big cities. After the government adopted a number of fiscal and financial policies to curb the rising CPI and housing price, people seem to be waiting for the market to correct itself. The mid-term trend is still uncertain due to huge Chinese demand for real asset, but in the short term, if home price drops, same effects such as shrinking consumer spending, inflating renting price, and higher mortgage rate, as in the U.S. will ensue. Another ongoing trend is the appreciation of commercial real estates. When home investment margin goes south, hot money is likely to transfer into this market and push up the price. Meanwhile, overheating economy also sustains the growth of the CRE.
The intention of the government regulation is by no means limited to the price concern. Such policy combination is targeting small and inefficient developers. The ones who can endure such price drop and maintain profitability will be large and accountable developers trusted by the government and the banks. These polices also convey the message of the "harmonious society" concept, in which the government is trying to make the housing more affordable and accessible.
Rising food, energy, and housing price has become the number one threat to the political stability in China and current administration's political legacy is totally depending upon its ability to manage this threat. (so by the end of the year, we will see exchange rate goes to 6.5, interest rate 1%up, reserve ratio up to 18%, and a new Shibor!)
I think the United States and China should coordinate and cooperate closely on these economic policy issues to avoid mutually destructive proposals that only intent to save their own back. They can also learn from each other's policy initiatives to improve economic outlook as well as people's living standard (education, health care, housing, etc.). Though two economies are heading toward different directions now, proper U.S.-China "alliance against economic deviation" might help the Americans to get a financial boost and the Chinese a soft landing.
The intention of the government regulation is by no means limited to the price concern. Such policy combination is targeting small and inefficient developers. The ones who can endure such price drop and maintain profitability will be large and accountable developers trusted by the government and the banks. These polices also convey the message of the "harmonious society" concept, in which the government is trying to make the housing more affordable and accessible.
Rising food, energy, and housing price has become the number one threat to the political stability in China and current administration's political legacy is totally depending upon its ability to manage this threat. (so by the end of the year, we will see exchange rate goes to 6.5, interest rate 1%up, reserve ratio up to 18%, and a new Shibor!)
I think the United States and China should coordinate and cooperate closely on these economic policy issues to avoid mutually destructive proposals that only intent to save their own back. They can also learn from each other's policy initiatives to improve economic outlook as well as people's living standard (education, health care, housing, etc.). Though two economies are heading toward different directions now, proper U.S.-China "alliance against economic deviation" might help the Americans to get a financial boost and the Chinese a soft landing.
1/09/2008
SolutionS for climate change
If people ask me now, do you believe in Malthusianism, well, I still don’t. There are many who don’t believe that future technology is going save us from current crisis in time. They argue that what we face today is something much more fundamental than previous threats. The available energy is simply going to run out and the climate change will ultimately kill us all. I only agree with one thing: we may loose the world as we know it, and it takes a change of paradigm to reach salvation.
There are a lot of cute new technologies that are quite exciting: paper thing solar battery, bamboo PC, paper CD and so on. Plus we have CDM and JI plans which created a market for CER/ERU of more than $30 billion in 2006, up 177% from 2005. Small progresses are here and there, but even giving Al Gore a Nobel Prize is not doing much good to the environment. What are we missing? Moreover, the Chinese government was and will continue to invest billions of dollars, trying to reach its own energy and environment targets, and yet, they failed miserably so far. What are they missing?
The answer perhaps lies in the recent article “10 Solutions for Climate Change” by David Biello in the Scientific American.
These solutions are: Forego Fossil Fuels, Infrastructure Upgrade, Move Closer to Work, Consume Less, Be Efficient, Eat Smart, Go Vegetarian? Stop Cutting Down Trees, Unplug, One Child, Future Fuels, and Experiment Earth.
Notice there is no specific emphasis on renewable energy or new technology; rather it is a comprehensive “Bucket List” for us to do before we die. It also implies how “total social engineering” may accomplish what single solution cannot. In deed, what we really need is an alternative platform for human progress, which can lead us to the change of mind, heart and behavior. One Zhuhai based energy saving company explains how it grows from a $20,000 business to $20 million business and says that “we are not depend upon expensive foreign technologies to save energy, instead we combine cheap, effective technology, comprehensive evaluation and reorganization, and retraining of employees to attain a much better result.” They are selling a concept, just like the David Biello solution.
So, I believe when the challenge comes, we will prevail. But in case not, hear the last resort proposed by Mr. Biello:
“If all else fails, it may not be the last. So-called geoengineering, radical interventions to either block sunlight or reduce greenhouse gases, is a potential last resort for addressing the challenge of climate change. Among the ideas: releasing sulfate particles in the air to mimic the cooling effects of a massive volcanic eruption; placing millions of small mirrors or lenses in space to deflect sunlight; covering portions of the planet with reflective films to bounce sunlight back into space; fertilizing the oceans with iron or other nutrients to enable plankton to absorb more carbon; and increasing cloud cover or the reflectivity of clouds that already form.”
Hurrah, any further questions?
There are a lot of cute new technologies that are quite exciting: paper thing solar battery, bamboo PC, paper CD and so on. Plus we have CDM and JI plans which created a market for CER/ERU of more than $30 billion in 2006, up 177% from 2005. Small progresses are here and there, but even giving Al Gore a Nobel Prize is not doing much good to the environment. What are we missing? Moreover, the Chinese government was and will continue to invest billions of dollars, trying to reach its own energy and environment targets, and yet, they failed miserably so far. What are they missing?
The answer perhaps lies in the recent article “10 Solutions for Climate Change” by David Biello in the Scientific American.
These solutions are: Forego Fossil Fuels, Infrastructure Upgrade, Move Closer to Work, Consume Less, Be Efficient, Eat Smart, Go Vegetarian? Stop Cutting Down Trees, Unplug, One Child, Future Fuels, and Experiment Earth.
Notice there is no specific emphasis on renewable energy or new technology; rather it is a comprehensive “Bucket List” for us to do before we die. It also implies how “total social engineering” may accomplish what single solution cannot. In deed, what we really need is an alternative platform for human progress, which can lead us to the change of mind, heart and behavior. One Zhuhai based energy saving company explains how it grows from a $20,000 business to $20 million business and says that “we are not depend upon expensive foreign technologies to save energy, instead we combine cheap, effective technology, comprehensive evaluation and reorganization, and retraining of employees to attain a much better result.” They are selling a concept, just like the David Biello solution.
So, I believe when the challenge comes, we will prevail. But in case not, hear the last resort proposed by Mr. Biello:
“If all else fails, it may not be the last. So-called geoengineering, radical interventions to either block sunlight or reduce greenhouse gases, is a potential last resort for addressing the challenge of climate change. Among the ideas: releasing sulfate particles in the air to mimic the cooling effects of a massive volcanic eruption; placing millions of small mirrors or lenses in space to deflect sunlight; covering portions of the planet with reflective films to bounce sunlight back into space; fertilizing the oceans with iron or other nutrients to enable plankton to absorb more carbon; and increasing cloud cover or the reflectivity of clouds that already form.”
Hurrah, any further questions?
Trip diary from China by EPA
I strongly recommend everyone who is interested in the norm of current US-China cooperation on environmental issues to look at EPA administrator Stephen Johnson's "Trip Diary from China" web page at http://www.epa.gov/chinadiary/. From December 10 to 15, 2007, Stephen Johnson joins Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and other senior U.S. officials at the third Cabinet-level meeting of the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue in the PRC. The SED focused on integrity of trade, balanced economic development, energy conservation, financial sector reform, environmental sustainability, and advancing bilateral investment. This diary is an account of the trip by Johnson and EPA's official delegation accompanying him to China.
What strike me most is the quick establishment of friendship between U.S. and China officials. Perhaps other than personality, the most important factor is that both countries share the most common interest on environmental protection and energy conservation. Some in China worried about possible U.S.-European alliance against developing world (particularly China) on environmental issues after the dramatic change of U.S. position in Bali. I tend to believe that the U.S. holds the same stake, shares the same possibility, and faces the same social support and resistance as China does. Hence, a better cooperation and coordination between the two will not only benefit the people of the two countries, but the whole world.
One of the ways in which U.S.-China alliance can help the world is through an African aid program: the U.S. providing finance and China providing cheap but effective energy technology. In fact, China has a number of such techs (efficient stove, boiler, floor heating system) and a lot more perhaps on the line waiting to be distributed. Meanwhile, India is making $2500 car with 30-35 hours power engine, which can also find broad market in Africa. Something has to be done to stop deforestation, environmental degradation, civil war, and terrorism there. And by working together, America and China can achieve a lot in that area. Unfortunately, the Defense Department created a new U.S. Africa Command headquarters, to be known as AFRICOM, to coordinate all U.S. military and security interests throughout the continent, with an special eye on the China expansion. I can only hope that mutual beneficial actions would happen to overcome the fear factor in Africa and African people could use both U.S. and China for a better end.
What strike me most is the quick establishment of friendship between U.S. and China officials. Perhaps other than personality, the most important factor is that both countries share the most common interest on environmental protection and energy conservation. Some in China worried about possible U.S.-European alliance against developing world (particularly China) on environmental issues after the dramatic change of U.S. position in Bali. I tend to believe that the U.S. holds the same stake, shares the same possibility, and faces the same social support and resistance as China does. Hence, a better cooperation and coordination between the two will not only benefit the people of the two countries, but the whole world.
One of the ways in which U.S.-China alliance can help the world is through an African aid program: the U.S. providing finance and China providing cheap but effective energy technology. In fact, China has a number of such techs (efficient stove, boiler, floor heating system) and a lot more perhaps on the line waiting to be distributed. Meanwhile, India is making $2500 car with 30-35 hours power engine, which can also find broad market in Africa. Something has to be done to stop deforestation, environmental degradation, civil war, and terrorism there. And by working together, America and China can achieve a lot in that area. Unfortunately, the Defense Department created a new U.S. Africa Command headquarters, to be known as AFRICOM, to coordinate all U.S. military and security interests throughout the continent, with an special eye on the China expansion. I can only hope that mutual beneficial actions would happen to overcome the fear factor in Africa and African people could use both U.S. and China for a better end.
1/08/2008
What about small businesses?
During the weekend, I was shopping with my wife and walked by a Bombay store with a sign of "going out of business". There was another one near my home with the same sign for over a month and I even took the advantage of its big discount to buy a wooden game board for my wife's grandfather. But by the time I saw the second one, I realized that this isn't a single event, it was the whole company that went under. At a time of "subprime crisis", "credit crunch", "record high oil price", and "looming recession", the Wall Street favorites are falling from the sky, but more than the stock market is suffering the consequences.
Yes, I am talking about small businesses. Those are the ones who benefit last from the economic boom and suffer first from the bust. However, outside the pure economic calculation, there are political and moral risks of ignoring them. American politicians understand these risks perfectly well. Because SB not only mean opportunity and innovation, but also jobs and peoples lives. Clinton's administration did a pretty good job on helping SB. In fact, when economic hard time comes, politicians are under pressure to safeguard SB, but this time, protectionist elements seem to be in the promised package. I can only hope that the next president would have a proper plan to stimulate SB and at the same time fend off protectionism.
In order to create more jobs, you need to have healthy and prosperous SB. That applies to China as well. Unfortunately, nationalistic mentality and GDP focused economic growth path have long prevented the government from constructing a comprehensive plan to assist the development of SB. People nowadays are talking about the stock market, heavy industries, energy and resources, but most of them are about big companies and state monopolies. Government officials and economic pundits in China are talking about "bigger and stronger" or "climb the value chain". Rising cost of materials and labor, weakening support by the government, rising scrutiny by foreign governments, continuous limitation on service sectors, and tightening credit market all work against the survival of many SB in China. That's why this so called "rising China" is only cheered or feared outside China (particularly in D.C.) while inside people are struggling to catching up with the wild CPI. And that's why if harmonious society were to be realized, the Chinese government had to learn from other countries (including the U.S.) about how to encourage and develop SB.
参见中国轻工业联合会行业研究处处长郭永新1月8日的采访记录。
Yes, I am talking about small businesses. Those are the ones who benefit last from the economic boom and suffer first from the bust. However, outside the pure economic calculation, there are political and moral risks of ignoring them. American politicians understand these risks perfectly well. Because SB not only mean opportunity and innovation, but also jobs and peoples lives. Clinton's administration did a pretty good job on helping SB. In fact, when economic hard time comes, politicians are under pressure to safeguard SB, but this time, protectionist elements seem to be in the promised package. I can only hope that the next president would have a proper plan to stimulate SB and at the same time fend off protectionism.
In order to create more jobs, you need to have healthy and prosperous SB. That applies to China as well. Unfortunately, nationalistic mentality and GDP focused economic growth path have long prevented the government from constructing a comprehensive plan to assist the development of SB. People nowadays are talking about the stock market, heavy industries, energy and resources, but most of them are about big companies and state monopolies. Government officials and economic pundits in China are talking about "bigger and stronger" or "climb the value chain". Rising cost of materials and labor, weakening support by the government, rising scrutiny by foreign governments, continuous limitation on service sectors, and tightening credit market all work against the survival of many SB in China. That's why this so called "rising China" is only cheered or feared outside China (particularly in D.C.) while inside people are struggling to catching up with the wild CPI. And that's why if harmonious society were to be realized, the Chinese government had to learn from other countries (including the U.S.) about how to encourage and develop SB.
参见中国轻工业联合会行业研究处处长郭永新1月8日的采访记录。
Dealing with the Dragon?
Before I wrote the next story, I want to put my letter to Paul Krugman regarding his op-ed on Jan. 4. 2008 a couple of days ago here to show my disappointment not only to him, but also to many American social scientists who are so good at explaining and predicting the United States (sometimes the world), but failed to understand China because they just don't want to spend time to look at it up close. I may not be accurate and informative in this letter as I should be due to my impulsive response at the time, but for the purpose I think it's enough.
Dear Dr. Krugman,
I am a loyal reader of yours for a long time and I think you are one of the finest economists in this country. However, when it comes to China, I can not believe that you repeat the common cliche and I have to say that's rather disappointing. Due to the limited space, I will make my comments short. 1. It's absolutely right to upgrade U.S.-China relations and for the next president to come up with a comprehensive China policy. Surely all of the issues you mentioned are important and urgent. 2. However, blaming skyrocketing oil price on the demand of China? Come on, if only will American save a little bit by not driving SUVs, adopt better construction material standards, improve railway system and reduce the number of trucks on the road, use existing efficiency technologies,build half a dozen nuclear power plants. The list can go on and on. 3. Imports? loosing jobs to China is no difference than to Brazil, Vietnam, Bangladesh, or whatever. If you want to save labor intensive jobs here in American, stop MNCs' profit seeking or maybe capitalism all together. A better national education and health care system may do more good than "take care of China". 4. Climate change? Save the historical carbon emission argument, or the per capita emission argument, the Chinese are truly cynical: they hide behind the Americans! Besides, when the industrialized countries "out-sourced" all polluting factories to China and India, what do you expect?
Finally, I don't want to pretend that everything is Americans' fault, but I do dislike the phrase "a good negotiator" as if negotiation can set these things straight. The U.S. do need a hero who can provide, not only transforming capacity here at home, but leadership and example to the world what American people can achieve and how much they can help other to accomplish the impossible.
Before I leave this page, the result of the presidential primary in New Hampshire is just coming out, and Hillary Clinton is giving a victory speech now. Since President Bush did such a terrible job in the office, America no doubt will have a very exciting and passionate election. Either a black or a woman President of the United States will be a revolutionary change in politics. However, whoever wins also has to face mounting problems created during the Bush years and that's why I think we should hope for a strong and creative leadership in this country to take on the mission of curing the American politics, economy and global warming.
Dear Dr. Krugman,
I am a loyal reader of yours for a long time and I think you are one of the finest economists in this country. However, when it comes to China, I can not believe that you repeat the common cliche and I have to say that's rather disappointing. Due to the limited space, I will make my comments short. 1. It's absolutely right to upgrade U.S.-China relations and for the next president to come up with a comprehensive China policy. Surely all of the issues you mentioned are important and urgent. 2. However, blaming skyrocketing oil price on the demand of China? Come on, if only will American save a little bit by not driving SUVs, adopt better construction material standards, improve railway system and reduce the number of trucks on the road, use existing efficiency technologies,build half a dozen nuclear power plants. The list can go on and on. 3. Imports? loosing jobs to China is no difference than to Brazil, Vietnam, Bangladesh, or whatever. If you want to save labor intensive jobs here in American, stop MNCs' profit seeking or maybe capitalism all together. A better national education and health care system may do more good than "take care of China". 4. Climate change? Save the historical carbon emission argument, or the per capita emission argument, the Chinese are truly cynical: they hide behind the Americans! Besides, when the industrialized countries "out-sourced" all polluting factories to China and India, what do you expect?
Finally, I don't want to pretend that everything is Americans' fault, but I do dislike the phrase "a good negotiator" as if negotiation can set these things straight. The U.S. do need a hero who can provide, not only transforming capacity here at home, but leadership and example to the world what American people can achieve and how much they can help other to accomplish the impossible.
Before I leave this page, the result of the presidential primary in New Hampshire is just coming out, and Hillary Clinton is giving a victory speech now. Since President Bush did such a terrible job in the office, America no doubt will have a very exciting and passionate election. Either a black or a woman President of the United States will be a revolutionary change in politics. However, whoever wins also has to face mounting problems created during the Bush years and that's why I think we should hope for a strong and creative leadership in this country to take on the mission of curing the American politics, economy and global warming.
1/07/2008
Welcome to the New Start of My Life
I have been observing and researching U.S.-China relations for over a decade, but I never thought about publicly discussing my ideas or my works, until today. One of my best friends convinced me that in today's fast growing electronic world, a world he called global democratic space, you either publish or perish. Well, I haven't publish anything...yet, and I probably have already died academically as considered by many of my colleagues. On the other hand, however, I felt the urgency of speaking out straightly about what I reckoned as important bilateral matters between the United States and China, without theorizing or dramatizing them. As it turned out, I named this blog after the subject that I am most interested in. I sincerely hope that I can keep writing on a weekly basis so that you can share with me about what happened here and now.
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