American census 2010 and the future of American foreign policy

The 2010 American census is here. There are several demographical trends in the U.S. that could be revealed through this process. First, more people will move out of the rusty belt area and into Florida, California and Texas, increasing the power of these populated states even more. Second, the percentage of white population will drop and probably soon will cease to be the majority of this country. Third, the importance of women in general will grow as the service industry expands.

It is quite obvious that the face of America is undergoing great change. In another 30 years, America will be very different from now. This transformation may not be as stable as people hope.

The new demography is favorable to current democrats' policy as urban population increases. Republicans maybe pushed to more extreme policy choices, but sooner or later, it has to adjust its stand so that it could recapture the center. Ethnic and religious divide will deepen and culture conflict might erupt from time to time, causing social tensions and complicating policy making processes. losing male dominance of the society may mean priority switch towards more women interests. Overall, the past center-right core ideological position of this country could gradually edge left. Therefore, if we step back and review the rise of Obama and the passage of the health care reform, they might be some critical events in a much longer trans-formative era.

Then, what's the implication of these changes for foreign policy? More domestic conflict, negotiation, and compromise will remake the American consensus, which may take a long and painful struggle over power. Such internal focus could reduce the attention paid to foreign affairs or commitment to international regimes. The cost of maintain the stability of the international system will continue to rise and America will find itself hard to manage all the aspects of the system without pooling resources with others. Therefore, soft power or moral influence will become more and more critical for American dominance.

America maybe less intrusive physically or militarily, but it could utilize more of its enormous propaganda power to assert pressure on its enemies. Also it may be more dependent on non-governmental entities to execute foreign policies.

The challenge for China in the future in dealing with the U.S. is that it may face a weaker counterpart, but the counterpart may pose no less threat to the Chinese interests. However, a more diversified U.S. could provide more opportunities for China to allying itself with. Overtime, they may finally find more common ground than now.