从华尔街到平民街

华尔街，英文叫 WALL STREET，是纽约曼哈顿下城区的金融“小”街。别看这条街本身窄小，街两边却是高楼林立，金融机构众多。纽约证券交易所就置身其中。平民街，英文叫 MAIN STREET，对此有不同的译法，但由于很多美国小镇上的主要街道以此命名，多数人把它当成华尔街的对应词，甚至反义词。如果说华尔街是大公司、大资本的代名词，那么平民街就是普通百姓生活的化身。
从一百年前华尔街脱颖而出成为资本主义世界的中心开始，它就和平民街分道扬镳、渐行渐远了。华尔街繁荣之时，点石成金而又挥金如土，对它的孪生兄弟不屑一顾，弃之如敝。华尔街衰落时又如败家之子、丧家之犬，拖累平民街失业下岗，甚至被迫替人埋单。两条街，两个世界，却生长在一片土地上，一个国度里。正是这两个时空铸就了美国人奋进与保守，疯狂与冷静，激情与谨慎，偏执与诚恳并立地双重性格。
七年前的9/11，世贸中心双塔被恐怖主义摧毁。华尔街损失惨重，而平民街感同身受，挺身而出，其代价则是近6000亿美元的战费(预计相关总支出将高达3万亿)和3万多士兵的伤亡。华尔街因此得以喘息，恢复元气，平民街却因此家家负债近5000美元。为了拯救华尔街，美联储主席格林斯潘将联邦基础利率一降再降，给聚集了金融业“天才”的华尔街创造了发家致富的良机。他们以抵押贷款为基础展开所谓金融创新，制造金融衍生产品，使虚拟经济的泡沫不断膨胀起来。
一年前，一切都看上去很美。华尔街大投行等金融机构的市值达到近2万亿美元的高峰，金融股总市值占美国股票总市值的20%。由于前几年的低利率，市面上流动性充裕，抵押贷款可以轻松获得。平民街人人皆有住房的美国梦在小布什总统“扩大住房所有权”的鼓动下空前高涨，住房拥有率超过70%，造就了战后50年美国人拥有住房的最高水平。就连以前很难购得房屋的低收入非洲裔美国人和单身家庭的住房拥有率都在逐级升高。由于需求推动，房价攀升，平民街的老百姓们就能以住房为抵押借更多的钱来超前消费。消费增加，则各行各业都呈现一片繁荣，就业自然就会增加。在这样的一个“良性循环”里，谁也看不出有什么问题，更别提金融灾难了。
一年后，一切看上去很糟。华尔街蒸发了4万亿市值，五大投行全军覆没。房价直线下跌，至今看不到底，而断供率直线上升，大批房产被人甩卖、抛弃。石油、粮食、黄金，商品市场疯狂的上涨，开车的人每加一次油就仿佛遭到了一次抢劫。随之而来的是消费紧缩，下岗失业。华尔街到底发生了什么?平民街非常想要知道，这些富人又在捣什么鬼？几年前美国最大能源公司安然公司破产后，政府不是加强了监管吗？可惜这一次，不是一家公司出了毛病，而是整个市场系统失灵了。更为恐怖的是，这一次华尔街连自己都搞不清楚这个窟窿有多大，该怎么补。老华尔街人美国财政部长保尔森和美联储主席伯南克在危机爆发后经常通电话，他们讨论的问题是，下一个要救谁，要不要救，怎么救？可是就连他们在回答国会质询时也只能说不救市就崩溃，而无法明确回答7000亿够不够用以及这些问题金融产品到底有多少。难怪自从次债危机登上报纸的第一天起，新闻界的任务就是补课，然后给平民街作名词解释和读者释疑。
华尔街的危机给平民街的人带来了什么？除去那些铺天盖地的拗口专业金融词汇和华尔街往日春风得意的高官们一个个暗淡收场外，平民街的人们生活确实有很多变化。比如以前美国人付账都是刷卡消费，月底还款。身上很少带现金，银行里也没什么存款。每月工资被税收、还贷、保险瓜分得很干净。现在很多人喜欢手持现金，节制消费，还要存点钱以备不时之需。以前，美国人热爱SUV，一上马路，经常看到以悍马为代表的重型汽车招摇过市。所以，如果你刚从欧洲或者日本来到美国，一定有一种从小人国进了大人国的感觉。现在再上马路，则经常看到迷你COOPER、普瑞斯甚至乐骋飞驰而过，仿佛嘲笑身边的笨重SUV们没有早点减肥，少吃一点汽油。更有甚者，美国的公共汽车、火车和自行车也火了起来。以前上美国的公交车找个座位应该不难，现在连站着有时候都感觉像在中国的城市里挤车。自行车对很多人来说是锻炼身体的运动项目，不过对住在城里的人而言，上下班改用自行车再自然不过了。美国的联合太平洋火车公司也借着油价飚涨的东风，提高了下一季度的预期利润，成了华尔街里少数逆市上涨的明星。
平民街还有很多的变化：租房的人多了；购物中心的停车场空了；医疗保险和学费又涨价了；度假的大大减少了；看电影的大大增加了；消费税继续增加；去沃尔玛卖中国货的人没有变少反而更多了；下岗的多了，尤其是干金融的，而这些人中很大一部分回去上学了；最后是拿中国说事儿的多了（好听的说中国规划长远，决策及时，重视基础设施和教育投入，值得学习；难听的说中国操纵汇率，盗版倾销，抢美国人饭碗，必须施压）。在这样的条件下，濒临崩溃的华尔街想要陷入困境的平民街拯救，谈何容易。但是，两者毕竟是个共生体。对华尔街上的一两个住户说不，可以说是防止“道德风险”，让犯错的人自食其果，也保护了纳税人的钱。但是让华尔街整条街垮掉所引发的灾难一定会蔓延到平民街，把两条街的房子烧掉之余，还会把地球村里的其他大街也一起点着。
然而，平民街拿什么来重整华尔街呢？救市不当，美国政府赤字大幅增加、美元持续贬值，大家会不会一起变成贫民街呢？这些问题恐怕要留给专家去解答了。但起码对现在的美国百姓而言，大家很生气，后果很严重。他们要求国会的议员们质询布什政府凭什么出了金融危机就要付不起房贷的穷人承担罪责而不是妄顾风险的金融机构负责？为什么中小投资者就该遭受重大损失而日进斗金的公司高管们却能全身而退？为何数额庞大近乎天文数字的金融衍生品市场无人监管致使风险失控？平民街同时要求开给华尔街的救命支票上注明条件：华尔街不得从此次救市中获利；华尔街高管们应自觉降薪；华尔街必须接受更严格的监管。无论如何，经历了百年风雨的华尔街和平民街不会轻易束手待毙。只要措施得当，华尔街就会借助平民街的坚韧和创新精神东山再起。未来的机遇说不定已经在这次危机中孕育着，问题在于我们是否有勇气和耐心像巴菲特一样投资未来呢？
顺便提一句，华尔街有个帮凶叫K大街。K大街在美国首府华盛顿特区中心。上面住满了由华尔街派到政治中心进行游说的公关专家。据说美国政治的腐败，尤其是对华尔街管理的疏松皆源于此。小布什政府上台以来，K大街灯红酒绿，繁荣异常，让平民街的人看在眼里，气在心头。美国民主、共和两党总统候选人为争取选票，纷纷响应平民街，大声疾呼革除K大街的痼疾，恢复美国民主的健康。所以，无论何人接替小布什，K大街恐怕都要有好戏上演。不过历史轮回，只怕等到华尔街恢复元气，重新举起“贪婪甚好”的座右铭，K大街还会一如既往，对平民街的百姓们坑蒙拐骗、巧取豪夺的。

HDTV and the Crisis of Capitalism

We went shopping the other day for my friend who needed a computer system. We all have the same feeling that if you stopped going to the tech stores and went back a year later, you would be shocked by how NEW things became. Just like when I went back to China last spring, I couldn't recognize any of the cell phones for sale. But I used to be an expert on fansy phones!
It happened again that day when we walked in to a Circuitcity store. I suddenlt noticed something's not right about a new LCD TV, or HDTV. I came closer to the TV and watched more attentivelty, and I realize that there's nothing wrong with it, just tooooo clear. Its high resolution display makes everything in the movie so detailed that it takes some time to form a complete image in your mind. What's the trick? A sleek super-slim Blue-Ray DVD.
I was standing there, thinking, until my friend inspired me about what I was trying to express: this thing is surreal, it's even clearer and brighter than reality! Yeah, for a long time, things beyond reality are besieging us, but nothing "blows" me away like this. Fundamentally, we are living in a world where more and more things are not real, above real, repressing real. Why? Because all these excessive technology created by Capitalism.
HDTV is pouring more detailed info than human eyes can catch. Windows Vista is more complicated but less convenient than XP. An 24'' LCD for my PC makes my head shake hundreds times a day! Our phone is no longer a phone, buy a information center which provides us with everything from weather to GPS. Make no mistakes, I love Apple Air, but I am just wondering are we using our talent and resource in the right direction? Can Capitalism give people a break and let them think about what they really need and what's not? What's more real than reality? Are we happier in a virtual reality? Is it better to stay in a movie threatre for a visual pageantry or travel in a world of forestry? Which green is greener: a tree outside your window or a picture in your computer? Which fortune is more solid, salary from work or investment in margins?
In a world full of great modern technologies and poisoned by poverty and misery, I am confused more than ever. It is said that Capitalism is the most efficient system to allocate resource, but for whom? Looking closely, it is the most efficient system to reduce cost in micro economics, but definitely not the one for macro perspective. The waste and squandering are driven by teh greed of human nature. Postmodern capitalism is watering and feeding that desire relentlessly.
Creative destruction. I have seen its work in the rise of America and China, and the collapse of the Chinese and American capital market. How powerful!
Should I be hopeful of a higher virtuality?

Obama benefiting from the crisis

By the way, I forgot to say yesterday. If the economic situation worsened, Obama would have a much bigger chance of winning the election, particularly when Bush and McCain sounded like Hoover. Also, like I said, the U.S. need a New Deal. The problem is New Deal was not working until the world war which brings huge demand for American goods. Without global wealth transfered to the U.S. during the War, American depression probably would have lasted much longer. Here's the question then, how could America replenish its lost capital again? One way of doing it without war, of course, is to rob money from those who hold American money and bond by depreciating dollar and lower fund rates. Unfortunately, the world has to pay, as long as they want to keep America alive so that the world has a police and they don't have to fight each other. So let's get ready Asia (especially), we're going down, with or without the U.S. in behind.